Typhoon Nesat (04W)

[senorpepr]

I don't think anyone has posted this, but for FYI, Nesat is a Cambodian word for fisherman. ...and now you know the rest of the story.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has a nice tight eye. I would not be at all surprized if this made super Typhoon before morning.

[senorpepr]

09Z JTWC advisory will maintain 115kt

[James]

Wow, Nesat has an extremely impressive appearance on satellite imagery. Excellent outflow and lots of deep convection. The eye is not very apparent, but then it was a pinhole eye to begin with.

[James]

Well, having said that, the convection now looks to have become a little elongated and it doesn't look quite as organised as before. What do you guys think?

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 11.7N9 136.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N9 136.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 12.7N0 134.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 13.9N3 132.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.4N0 131.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.9N6 130.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.1N3 132.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 25.5N2 134.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 31.3N7 138.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.0N3 135.9E8.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 35 FEET. REFER TO
WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9.

Maximun winds are mantained at 115 kts.The forecast track at this latest advisory takes it very close to Japan but by then it will weaken but if it comes close they could get rain and gusty winds.

[senorpepr]

as you can see above, things are beginning to pan out for a Central Japanese landfall. The current track takes it near Tokyo, but thankfully cooler waters and increased shear will help transition this typhoon into an extratropical system. Regardless, it will need to be monitored over the next couple of days.


http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

[senorpepr]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 021550
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 14
2 AM GUAM LST FRI JUN 3 2005

...TYPHOON NESAT SLOWING DOWN A BIT AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER...TYPHOON NESAT IS GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET
ON NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF YAP...ULITHI AND
FAIS.

AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP
290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
605 MILES WEST OF GUAM...AND
695 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN.

TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS A
CATEGORY 4...VERY STRONG TYPHOON...ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL
CYCLONE SCALE. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.9 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 130 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
8 AM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

AHN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The cyclone is starting to look sick.

[cycloneye]

You are right Matt.It has weaken a little this afternoon as winds are down to 110 kts and the pressure has gone up to 933 mbs.

[senorpepr]

Yup, and the window for any oppertunity for strengthening is closing as Nesat is approaching cooler waters and higher shear aloft. Of course, the cold front offshore of China and Japan is helping in closing that window...

[senorpepr]

[HurricaneBill]

Looks like the eye is trying to reappear.

[senorpepr]

105kt is the latest from JTWC... 90kt (both speeds are 1-min avg) out of JMA. Looks like a slim chance at a little strengthening before cooler water, higher shear, and a baroclinic system help make Nesat into an extratropical system. It's 920mi SSE of Okinawa.

http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

WTPQ20 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 14.0N 132.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 170NM
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 16.8N 130.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
45HF 051200UTC 19.4N 130.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
69HF 061200UTC 22.0N 131.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 13.7N1 132.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 132.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.1N7 131.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.7N4 130.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 18.5N4 130.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.6N8 131.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 25.5N2 135.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 31.1N5 140.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 36.7N6 146.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.1N6 132.5E1.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS
37 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6, 040300Z7, 040900Z3 AND 041500Z0.//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Nesat fights back!

[HURAKAN]

NESAT NOW STRONGER THAN EVER ROAMS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME A SUPER TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM MAJOR LAND AREAS LIKE LUZON, TAIWAN, AND JAPAN.

[senorpepr]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the JMA products.


Hmmm... I'm not sure if I buy JTWC's analysis on Nesat, although it did undergo some strengthening. I just don't buy an increase of 15kt. Regardless, 120kt out of JTWC and 100kt out of JMA. Personally, I'd say 110kt... but that's my opinion. :finds standard disclaimer:

Dvorak estimates are still slow to come up. I'm not too confident this will become a bona fide STY, but it's possible.

Furthermore, it looks like Tokyo and Misawa will get some gusty winds and possibly some heavy rainfall out of Nesat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The T numbers are up
03/2025 UTC 14.3N 131.6E T6.5/6.5 NESAT

[James]

It's a funny looking typhoon. Kinda like a big squashed blob with a tiny pinhole eye. Just haven't seen one like that for a while...

[senorpepr]

From the folks at AFWA:

05A/ PBO 15NM SMALL EYE/ANMTN. DVORAK CNSTRNTS BKN FOR
RPD DVLPMT OF ONE AND ONE-HALF T-NBRS OVR PAST 6HRS (ONE
T-NBR OVR PAST 6HRS). OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A 34NM CMG
BAND GIVING A EYE NBR OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJ YIELDING
A DT OF 7.0. FT BASED ON DT. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 6.5.

They are going with T7.0

The eye is starting to clear out some, so the chances of this becoming a super typhoon have increased some. 910mb is the latest pressure estimate.