Does system have a prayer?

[mobilebay]

I'm talking about the area in the Northwest Caribbean. I know it has already been posted that the GFS is forecasting a surface low to develop. However, what I find interesting is that thunderstorm activity has increased in that area. Also all the models that I've seen ( GFS, CMC,NOGAPS) forecasts a system to move due north out of the Caribbean , through the GOM and into the Destin/Panama City area. Although the GFS is the only model that brings it down to the surface. The GFS shows a Sheared system with all convection on the east side. Although development is unlikely, it is not impossible. Just my .02$

[mobilebay]

I just read the NWS Tallahassee's AM Discussion and they are not totally discounting the GFS either.

[george_r_1961]

IMHO the chances small but certainly nonexistant. If the convection keeps up surface pressures will lower and we might eventually get an LLCC. Then we need to see convection organized around the LLCC and for that to happen shear has to relax.

[tallywx]

We'll need to see a signature around 12 hours from now. Goodnight, and when I wake up all will be known.

[mobilebay]

I noticed that the Thunderstorms are increasing again this morning. I'm not usually a BLOB fanatic but I think this one has a Chance to become a weak TC.

[AussieMark]

I suppose we'll have to play the waiting game and see what happens. Strong shear may make this unlikely tho

[wxman57]

Strong shear wouldn't necessarily prevent an LLC from forming, but it would greatly inhibit strengthening. It's quite possible a weak LLC will form in the eastern Gulf before it moves ashore. But all convection will be located north and east of the center. Probably wouldn't qualify for TD status.

[Wnghs2007]

Strong shear wouldn't necessarily prevent an LLC from forming, but it would greatly inhibit strengthening. It's quite possible a weak LLC will form in the eastern Gulf before it moves ashore. But all convection will be located north and east of the center. Probably wouldn't qualify for TD status.

Agree, and as my AFD says it probally still will bring a moisture plume into the Southeast for Convection to Form on Sunday. And for us to in Georgia to have a wet day.

THERE HAS BEEN DISCUSSION ON
HOW SERIOUS TO TAKE THE GFS SOLUTION OF A PSEUDO-TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME I HAVE
DOWNPLAYED THE ORGANIZED SYSTEM THE GFS IS DEPICTING...BUT BUY INTO
THE SYNOPIC SCALE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES
THAT WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.

[PTrackerLA]

Doesn't look like much of a chance we'll get any moisture from this system. Still have major rainfall deficits in south Louisiana to make up and a system like this is just what the doctor ordered. It's definately going to be interesting to watch however I wouldn't expect much more than a TD to come out of this.

[Scott_inVA]

GFS is now washing out a 1008 Low in eastern GOM bringing in QPFs generally < .50 up to the Panhandle.

Not much at the surface, no elevated chance with unfavorable shear.

Crummy wx, no development.

Next

Scott

[Skywatch_NC]

Now as I recall...that area in the nw Caribbean did look on satellite like it was folding it's hands and bowing it's head.

[Brent]

GFS is now washing out a 1008 Low in eastern GOM bringing in QPFs generally < .50 up to the Panhandle.

Not much at the surface, no elevated chance with unfavorable shear.

Crummy wx, no development.

Next

Scott

Wonderful. It probably comes up here(I'm directly north of PCB/Apalachicola)

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 030610
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LIGHT RAIN...WE NOW HAVE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND PENINSULA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND OBSERVATIONS FROM TAMPA BAY
SHOW WINDS HAVE INCREASED SOME. 88D WIND PROFILE IS PRETTY MUCH
STRAIGHT SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST 30K FEET...ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

GFS STILL INSISTS ON DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR WESTERN CUBA
TODAY...THEN MOVES IT NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY.
THIS SOLUTIONS IS NOT LIKELY AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WOULD CREATE TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD...I RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN ALLOWS THE STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE 500 MB TROUGH FINALLY
WEAKENS AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING
WEST AND NORTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

[Scott_inVA]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 030610
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
210 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LIGHT RAIN...WE NOW HAVE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND PENINSULA. THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND OBSERVATIONS FROM TAMPA BAY
SHOW WINDS HAVE INCREASED SOME. 88D WIND PROFILE IS PRETTY MUCH
STRAIGHT SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST 30K FEET...ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

GFS STILL INSISTS ON DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR WESTERN CUBA
TODAY...THEN MOVES IT NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY.
THIS SOLUTIONS IS NOT LIKELY AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WOULD CREATE TOO MUCH SHEAR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. INSTEAD...I RELIED HEAVILY ON THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN ALLOWS THE STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE 500 MB TROUGH FINALLY
WEAKENS AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE SET UP
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING
WEST AND NORTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

TBW's AFD was based on the 0Z GFS. Precip? Yes. Development more that a wave? No

Scott

[Rainband]

Thats why I highlighted that. NO development part

[AussieMark]

this being first week of June its not exactly suprising that the conditions are hostile.


---Mark---

[Rainband]

Exactly Mark

[dhweather]

So we're still in hurry up and wait mode. ha ha ha.

[feederband]

Does it have a prayer? I'll give it one. I pray that it goes away..Amen.....

[Rainband]

So we're still in hurry up and wait mode. ha ha ha.

Maybe you are. We don't need or want any action this year in Florida