Adrian re-classified???

[mobilebay]

A clear map showing the Gulf of Fonseca.

Yes. that cleared that up for me!Thank you!

[senorpepr]

Bs just before landfall Andrian had formed a banding eye again. It was with out quastion a 75 to 80 mph hurricane. Storms that move in at that angle normally get a little stronger as they go in. Because of the angle of the land that tightens the cirualtion up.

Once again, what makes you think your analysis is more credible than a seasoned meteorologist with a degree? I think you ought to check out NRL's satellite archives. Study them hard. ...and while you're at it: quit the NHC bashing.

[senorpepr]

What the heck Mobile they did report a 81 mph gust. In remember there is not many reporting stations down in that area. Why are you pointing fingers at me?

That doesn't prove a thing. A station can report hurricane force gusts while a storm is still over water. The storm weakened prior to officially making landfall, but not without spreading tropical storm force sustained winds over land.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't get it I did not bash the nhc. When storms go into at that angle they tighten up a little. With a 81 mph gust with in a area with few obs. Why your bashing me.

[senorpepr]

I don't get it I did not bash the nhc. When storms go into at that angle they tighten up a little. With a 81 mph gust with in a area with few obs. Why your bashing me.

You did bash the NHC. You claimed their analysis was "BS." You said, "without question" it was a 75-80mph hurricane." (Which even if that was the case, an 81mph gust wouldn't support that.) Also, not all storms that go "in at that angle" tighten up. It depends on atmospheric conditions. Moreover, I won't bash you if you don't bash the professions. Someone has to stand up in their defense.

[HurricaneBill]

Adrian looked terrible on satellite while moving closer to landfall. The center was becoming elongated.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That was not pointed at them I can asure you. There is not many reporting stations down in that area. At the angle that the storm was going they normally do tighten up. The storm just before it went in redeveloped some central convection. We will see later this year.

[Derek Ortt]

matt is clueless regarding this matter

the definition of a landfall intensity is the intensity when the center crosses the coast. For example, Hurricane Keith brought sustained category 3 winds to Belize in 2000, yet it made landfall in Belize as a tropical storm.

So, it likely affected land as a very strong tropical storm, as evidenced by some of the wind gusts (which also may have been at elevation), yet it made an official landfall, in a small bay, as a tropical depression

[mobilebay]

I want clarify something. The 81 MPH gust was reported from a Ham radio operator, and has probably been discounted.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I'm a clueless Idiot I'm done with for tonight. I need to take a walk.

[mobilebay]

Yes I'm a clueless Idiot I'm done with for tonight. I need to take a walk.

Sorry Matt. Those where some strong words to use. You are pretty sharp on the tropics and I hope you keep posting. I don't think you are clueless at all. I just can't stand NHC bashing.

[tallywx]

Matt, perhaps you can enlighten us as to how storms going in at that angle "tighten up" any more than at any other angle.


As for this storm, even if we assume that to be true (HUGE assumption), it still would not overcome the rapidly deteriorating upper-level conditions that stretched it out in those last few hours. Also, the circulation was pulling air off land as it trekked along the coast at an oblique angle. I'm sure pulling in air that was coming off those mountains entrained turbulence and downstream vorticities into the center, which helped in its degradation.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The land slows the winds down, in at the same time the ocean(The half over water) the winds stay the same. Like a top the cirualtion tightens. Also the last hour before landfall the outflow to the northeast quad become slightly better oreganized. Weak hurricane I think. Again that is my option.


Also what allowed it to become slightly better oreganized is that the storm was on the southeast quad of the subtropical jet. Which enhance the outflow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One more thing Derek, before you go calling me clueless take a look at this.

This is from the Nhc report on Keith's.

Rapid intensification began near that time, and Keith's central pressure fell from 1000 mb at 1814 UTC on the 29th to 939 mb at 0708 UTC 1 October -- a 61 mb fall in about 37 h. A 38 mb fall occurred from 1808 UTC on the 30th to the time of minimum pressure, which qualifies as explosive deepening as defined by Dunnavan (1981). Maximum winds reached 120 kt -- Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale near the time of minimum pressure. During this rapid development, Keith slowed and turned westward, with the eye moving to a position just southeast of the coastal islands of Belize. A slight weakening occurred later on the 1st, and Keith was a Category 3 hurricane when the eyewall moved over Ambergris Cay and Caye Caulker, Belize near 1800 UTC.


Yes it did weaken to a depression over land but redeveloped when it went back into the Gulf. I stayed up all night fellowing this...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archi ... KEITHB.GIF

[senorpepr]

One more thing Derek, before you go calling me clueless take a look at this.

This is from the Nhc report on Keith's.

Rapid intensification began near that time, and Keith's central pressure fell from 1000 mb at 1814 UTC on the 29th to 939 mb at 0708 UTC 1 October -- a 61 mb fall in about 37 h. A 38 mb fall occurred from 1808 UTC on the 30th to the time of minimum pressure, which qualifies as explosive deepening as defined by Dunnavan (1981). Maximum winds reached 120 kt -- Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale near the time of minimum pressure. During this rapid development, Keith slowed and turned westward, with the eye moving to a position just southeast of the coastal islands of Belize. A slight weakening occurred later on the 1st, and Keith was a Category 3 hurricane when the eyewall moved over Ambergris Cay and Caye Caulker, Belize near 1800 UTC.


Yes it did weaken to a depression over land but redeveloped when it went back into the Gulf. I stayed up all night fellowing this...

All right, I'll bite. Appearently you didn't bother reading the VERY FIRST paragraph of NHC's report: (which is exactly what Derek said...)

Keith was a rapidly-intensifying tropical cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, reaching Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale as it stalled just off the coast of Belize. Keith affected the coastal islands of Belize as a Category 3 hurricane, but weakened to a tropical storm before actually making landfall in mainland Belize. After weakening to a tropical depression while crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, Keith re-intensified over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and made landfall in northeastern Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane.

Don't counterslam someone until you have your facts straight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thanks for pointing out how much of a idiot in a fool I'm. That makes me look really smart doe's it. I should just realize, that I'm never going to be anything with in this field. It takes smart people with out anything to hold them(Like learning problems) back in still it takes years for them to make it.

Here is what I'm going to do.

I'm going to quite acting like I know anything because I don't.

I'm going to leave it up to the nhc or the people that have years of schooling.

Thank you for making me see the light that I'm learning disabled in should let the pro's do it.

I will be good member now.

[mobilebay]

Matt, your not an idiot at all. Some of the language used against you is ridiculous. I don't think you are clueless and I enjoy reading your posts. This type of HAMMERING on a poster should not be tolerated. Don't let them get you down. Your posts are more than welcome here.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thank you Mobilebay.

[senorpepr]

Thanks for pointing out how much of a idiot in a fool I'm. That makes me look really smart doe's it. I should just realize, that I'm never going to be anything with in this field. It takes smart people with out anything to hold them(Like learning problems) back in still it takes years for them to make it.

Here is what I'm going to do.

I'm going to quite acting like I know anything because I don't.

I'm going to leave it up to the nhc or the people that have years of schooling.

Thank you for making me see the light that I'm learning disabled in should let the pro's do it.

I will be good member now.

Matt, trust me, I enjoy seeing your comments. Your insight is respected like anyone else's, but you have to realize that you put yourself in front of the firing squad when you start saying something completely different that the NHC. (ie, Adrian being 75-80mph versus a depression) Also, many of us who have gone through years of schooling learned from dealing with others. Try that. Learn from the experienced folks here instead of trying to counterslam them. Most of us are trying to hand out great knowledge... for free. You can't get that at the local university.