Trends from models are the key to follow

[cycloneye]

Of course long range forecasts have to be treated with a grain of salt and with the GFS on a long range more so.But what I am looking for is for trends one way or another for something to pop up in the next 15 days.The runs that I posted above show low pressures in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic NE of the Caribbean but nothing that looks to develop.But let's see in next runs how these features show up to see consistency or they dissapear and that is the trend this and other models will have on long range forecast runs.

Also if you look at the pressures the azores high is way up in latitud leaving lower pressures in the MDR area or the Tropical Atlantic one of the factors that are favorable for an active season.

[x-y-no]

Yes. This is the time period I was talking about in this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=63331.

No run has indicated significant development, but conditions look like they'll be primed, more likely in the NW Caribbean than in the Gulf itself IMHO, around June 11-14.

We'll see ... even if something is going to pop, I wouldn't expect the models to jump on it for a while yet.

Jan

[James]

Yes, that sounds about right. The models will undoubtedly get a better grip on things as time goes by. it looks like there may be cause to keep an eye on that area, though.

[dhweather]

Yes. This is the time period I was talking about in this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=63331.

No run has indicated significant development, but conditions look like they'll be primed, more likely in the NW Caribbean than in the Gulf itself IMHO, around June 11-14.

We'll see ... even if something is going to pop, I wouldn't expect the models to jump on it for a while yet.

Jan

But if it doesn't happen, we will brutally hound you!

[x-y-no]

Yes. This is the time period I was talking about in this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=63331.

No run has indicated significant development, but conditions look like they'll be primed, more likely in the NW Caribbean than in the Gulf itself IMHO, around June 11-14.

We'll see ... even if something is going to pop, I wouldn't expect the models to jump on it for a while yet.

Jan

But if it doesn't happen, we will brutall hound you!

Yeah, I know ... I broke the 11th commandment - never stick your neck out, someone may chop it off!

[cycloneye]

Yes. This is the time period I was talking about in this post: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=63331.

No run has indicated significant development, but conditions look like they'll be primed, more likely in the NW Caribbean than in the Gulf itself IMHO, around June 11-14.

We'll see ... even if something is going to pop, I wouldn't expect the models to jump on it for a while yet.

Jan

But if it doesn't happen, we will brutall hound you!

Yeah, I know ... I broke the 11th commandment - never stick your neck out, someone may chop it off!

That is why I dont never go out on a limb about a long range run of a model.

[cycloneye]

Again let's watch the trend of this GFS model and other global models about what the long range shows about a low pressure emerging Africa on the 17th.Let's see if further runs show the trend towards something interesting there or there is nothing.

[Anonymous]

[cycloneye]

I am keeping an eye on the trends on the long range of the GFS.It shows a pair of low pressures one in the Bahamas and the other in the Central Atlantic.But of course as the heading of thread says let's follow the trends to see how this and other models show the features in next runs.