#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 31, 2005 12:39 pm
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 10.4N5 145.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N5 145.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 11.1N3 143.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 11.8N0 141.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 12.6N9 139.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 13.5N9 137.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 15.7N3 134.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.4N2 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 19.7N7 131.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.6N7 144.7E6.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. A 311044Z3 SSM/I MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE EAST
OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDI-
TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7,
010300Z4, 010900Z0 AND 011500Z7.//
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I certainly hope not.
