Just wanted to let you guys know

[Josephine96]

that when we begin having storms in the Atlantic.. I'll be back to giving amateur forecasts again..

I had fun with it last year.. even though you guys ripped me to shreds because I kept thinking Jeanne was coming to Florida lol

[x-y-no]

Looking forward to it.

I'm planning to take a shot at it too - probably just doing 3-day tracks. Adrian caught me flat-footed, though. I figured I had at least a couple of more weeks to get my methodology worked out.

Jan

[yoda]

Same here Jan.

[vbhoutex]

that when we begin having storms in the Atlantic.. I'll be back to giving amateur forecasts again..

I had fun with it last year.. even though you guys ripped me to shreds because I kept thinking Jeanne was coming to Florida lol

OMG!!! NOT AGAIN!!!!! HEHEHEHE!!!J/K

Go for it John!!!

Everyone please remember to put the discalaimer at the start of your forecast.

[gatorcane]

my forecast is simple...wherever it is it's going to hit FL!

[boca]

it will hit Daytona not Boca Raton

[Anonymous]

it will hit Daytona not Boca Raton

No it wont, it will hit Jacksonville Its our turn!

[dhweather]

Jacksonville does seem to have some good luck from storms.

When was the last landfall close to Jacksonville?

[HurricaneBill]

Jacksonville does seem to have some good luck from storms.

When was the last landfall close to Jacksonville?

David in 1979 traveled up the coast of Florida with the eye just onshore.

However, the last hurricane to make landfall by moving due west into Jacksonville was Hurricane Dora in 1964.

[HurricaneBill]

I'm wondering if Georgia will get hit. A hurricane has not made landfall on Georgia in over a century. Although David in 1979 made landfall on the GA/SC border.

[gatorcane]

boca yes you are right it's going to hit StormChasr's house in Daytona...lol

[dhweather]

Jacksonville does seem to have some good luck from storms.

When was the last landfall close to Jacksonville?

David in 1979 traveled up the coast of Florida with the eye just onshore.

However, the last hurricane to make landfall by moving due west into Jacksonville was Hurricane Dora in 1964.

Wow, you'd think I would remember a hurricane named after me did that.

[wxman57]

Jacksonville does seem to have some good luck from storms.

When was the last landfall close to Jacksonville?

David in 1979 traveled up the coast of Florida with the eye just onshore.

However, the last hurricane to make landfall by moving due west into Jacksonville was Hurricane Dora in 1964.

Wow, you'd think I would remember a hurricane named after me did that.

David's center passed about 30 miles offshore of Jacksonville new 30.2N/80.9W, it didn't go over Jacksonville.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[dhweather]

I remembered the devastation in Cuba, I didn't remember Florida.

How could I do that?

[KatDaddy]

Thats what Storm2k is all about. You can make a forecast including the discalaimer and dont give up due to responses from others. Always state your forecast and move ahead. Its all good and for the same love of weather.

[Anonymous]

I intend to do the same...as I did last season. I have all of my forecasts saved. I would have to say I think Ivan was my best, but then again, it was a hard forecast:

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 3
Tuesday September 7, 2004 11am
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICIAL INFO

Ivan remains a well organized dangerous category 3 hurricane. Winds are back up to 115 mph and 963 mb.

I see a movement to the south of my previous track, given the low latitude. Not too much more to say about track.

Intensity is not as much of a problem as it was before. Waters are warm and the ULL that has created shear is forecast to move west. This makes me uneasy. I said this during Charley. I recent seasons, everytime a ULL moves west and leaves a good enviornment for a hurricane, we get a monster. Lili, Charley, Isidore.... Ivan? And, to make matters worse, I am no longer forecasting a landfall in Cuba.... therefore the intensification continues in my forecast. Time will tell. Ivan the terrible....

12 HRS-- 12.5N-- 62.6W-- 105 kt
24 HRS-- 13.8N-- 66.5W-- 110 kt
36 HRS-- 14.9N-- 70.1W-- 115 kt
48 HRS-- 16.0N-- 75.0W-- 115 kt
72 HRS-- 17.5N-- 79.0W-- 120 kt
96 HRS-- 20.0N-- 83.0W-- 125 kt
120 HRS- 22.3N-- 86.8W-- 135 kt

MY FORECAST TRACK::: http://www.freewebs.com/gopdude/ivan.bmp

[LarryWx]

I'm wondering if Georgia will get hit. A hurricane has not made landfall on Georgia in over a century. Although David in 1979 made landfall on the GA/SC border.

Bill, if you had said that a MAJOR hurricane has not made landfall on Georgia in over a century, you would have been correct (1898 was last MAJOR). However, David in 1979 did, indeed, make landfall in GA just south of Savannah near Ossabaw Island as a borderline cat 1-2 hurricane with portions of Savannah very close to the eye shortly afterward.

In addition, on 10/15/1947, a cat. 2 hurricane made landfall in GA just south of Savannah moving due westward. The Oct. 1947 hurricane was the first one in which seeding was
performed to try to weaken it. The seeding was done around 10/13/1947 as the storm was headed NE several hundred miles offshore and appeared to be moving harmlessly
out to sea. However, the storm failed to weaken with any significance, held its own, suddenly made a 135 degree left hairpin turn by the next day from a point about 400 miles due east of Savannah, and started to strengthen. It was now moving due westward and struck the coast near Savannah on 10/15 causing quite a bit of damage in that area.

Although there is no proof, some people, including the person who headed this seeding project from GE, blamed the seeding for the sudden change of course. As a result, no more seedings were attempted again until at least 1958. There actually may have bveen something to that theory as a weakened storm can cause the mean steering layer to lower, thus possibly changing the course.

Here is a link to the track:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif

Here's a link to a short write-up on it:
http://library.thinkquest.org/C003603/e ... qtime=0603

[skywarn]

Many believed then and even today in Louisiana that Hurricane Betsy in 1965 was seeded when it was just north of Puerto Rico. It was said that this caused Betsy to weaken, slow down and continue in an erratic manner. It eventually made a sudden change in course just north of the Bahama Islands, looped and came through the Florida Straits and headed NW into S.E. LA with winds near 150 mph in gusts.. The National Weather Service denies that Betsy was seeded. Others disagree.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/betsy.htm

[HurricaneBill]

In 1969, Hurricane Debbie was seeded and did weaken. However, she'd reintensify afterwards. I wonder if Debbie was simply undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. At one point, Debbie was reported as having two eyes.

[Josephine96]

My best forecast was probably the ones I made about Jeanne..