Strong Troughs Continue to Sweep the Florida Peninsula...

[gatorcane]

I've been in FL for over 20 years and it's been a while that I've seen such strong troughs sweep through the state of FL this time of year. This weekend we are expecting lows in South Florida (West Palm Beach South) to be in the mid 50s away from the coast, well below normal. Also, the water is still ranging in the mid 70s most spots along the South Florida coastline, usually I can swim comfortably around this time as the water is closer to 80. One would expect that as we move into May, we'll see these troughs have a more difficult time moving through FL. Let's see what happens over the next month or so but if this trend persists, it may indicate that we will see less ridging off the coast this year, at least at the beginning of Hurricane season.

[Aquawind]

I hear ya.. it's been coolish for floridians..awesome spring actually..One of these days the fronts will start stalling half way down the peninsula but to this point they have been simply blowing through...all of them..The bermuda high should begin flexing it's muscles pretty soon according to climatology and it's looks like it's trying to after reading the Mike Watkins post..we shall see.. Definatley a key factor for Floridians... Things are cool down here now... but after standing outside down here in May for 15 minutes I doubt cool will come to mind to anyone but my wife..

Paul

[gatorcane]

Yes, we'll have to wait a few weeks. Watkins technical discussion does indicate a Bermuda High trying to build, but right now the casual observes sees no evidence of one. We actually have a cold core Low drifting South off the Southeast coast this weekend that's bringing in plenty of cool dry air from the north across the peninsula and surrounding waters. This Low Feature will undoutedly keep the water temperatures off the East Coast of Florida from warming any and they may actually drop some over the next several days. If there was even some evidence of a Bermuda High, this low would be pushed off to the north instead of drifting to the South.

[Steve H.]

I've been saying this spring that this situation with the troughs may not bode well for the peninsula. The pattern change over the next couple of months may introduce the inverse......strong ridging to replace the long wave troughs the east has been experiencing all winter. The prospect is not encouraging

[Aquawind]

Well said Chris.. not much high pressure influence right now with low pressure drifting ESE along the coast..

I hear ya Steve..patterns only last for so long before they change and back to the scary pattern is next for us..hopefully not until after prime time..

Paul

[gatorcane]

Thanks Aquawind and Steve H. I would have to agree with you guys on a pattern reversal that could happen later in the season. We should remember last year (and many seem to forget), when we did indeed see strong troughs heading south even into the summer. I remember Florida had a series of unusually strong troughs in May/June that stalled just north of central Florida. That caused central Florida to have a very wet May/June (contradictory to South Florida which had an extremely dry May). In addition, it was indeed a fight between a strong trough approaching the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Bermuda High that caused Charley to slam into Southwest Florida. The trough actually was strong than forecasters thought or else the Tampa area should have been hit. Then later in the summer with the rest of the storms, we saw major ridging take place that we didn't see earlier in the summer (or even in the past decade!). Are we setting up for a possible possible repeat this summer? My prediction is that this year is going to be similar to last with the trough/ridging setup

[Scorpion]

Very strange spring weather, but I love it. This morning was perfect, 60 degrees, and this afternoon its so nice, about 72 out and winds of 30 mph. Sure wouldn't expect this in mid April.

[cyclonaut]

I can remember when it has gotten cool in May before down here.

[TampaFl]

You are all right about it being cool. I had 54 degrees at my house this morning with an afternoon high of only 77 With low humidity on top of that! Come July,August, & September we are all going to wish we had these "cool/ comfortable" days back . Enjoying it while it is here!


Robert

[gatorcane]

Yes Robert, down in South Florida here (Boca Raton), it's unseasonably cool. We saw a high in the mid 70s today with lows in the low 60s and minimal humidity...it's more like a February day here in South Florida...it's nice though. I have my windows open!

[T'Bonz]

I can't believe how cool it is for April. This rocks. Wish it would stay all summer.

[gatorcane]

Troughs continue to sweep FL....

Here we are in late May and the winds are out of the W and NW across most of FL as yet another trough moves in...it's obviously not a strong one and there is no cold air behind it, but it's rather remarkable in my opinion.

The weather pattern this May is definitely alot different than last year...this time last year we were seeing deep E and SE winds across the peninsula. We have seen signs of them but not like last year.

It's not looking like the Bermuda High will be as strong as last year...

[Scorpion]

Rather odd that its 86 out with a trough coming in.

[TropicalWXMA]

I sounds like it's really nice down in Florida. It's in the upper 50's and raining on the Cape!

[cyclonaut]

I sounds like it's really nice down in Florida. It's in the upper 50's and raining on the Cape!

That sounds brutal..Its beach weather down here & the towering t-storm clouds are off to my west..Looks & feels like summer!

[gatorcane]

it's actually hotter where I live on the beach in Boca because the winds are off the steamy Everglades...usually there's a nice breeze of the Atlantic that keeps the temps from not getting higher than the mid 80s...

[TS Zack]

Long-range GFS continue to show the Bermuda-Azores High building across Florida in the upcoming weeks. The troughs will stop making it down to the Gulf Coast by June. Hopefully they will because with troughs stalling over the Gulf, you take the risk of getting a home grown storm.

[BayouVenteux]

Troughs continue to sweep FL....

Here we are in late May and the winds are out of the W and NW across most of FL as yet another trough moves in...it's obviously not a strong one and there is no cold air behind it, but it's rather remarkable in my opinion.

The weather pattern this May is definitely alot different than last year...this time last year we were seeing deep E and SE winds across the peninsula. We have seen signs of them but not like last year.

It's not looking like the Bermuda High will be as strong as last year...

No, trust me, there's no cold air behind the aforementioned trough. The Baton Rouge NWS station up at the airport hit 94 degrees today, 1 degree off the all-time record.

Respectfully, you shouldn't count the impact of the Bermuda High out so early just because events aren't a carbon copy of 2004 thus far. It's the high's position and strength in August through October that will determine the who, what, and where of this hurricane season.

[dhweather]

A meager heat index of 100 today, high was 89.3

It was warmer today after the trough passed through

[JTD]

Long-range GFS continue to show the Bermuda-Azores High building across Florida in the upcoming weeks. The troughs will stop making it down to the Gulf Coast by June. Hopefully they will because with troughs stalling over the Gulf, you take the risk of getting a home grown storm.

Very interesting.