When will the 1st Atlantic storm form..?

[senorpepr]

This is all that needs to be said. The unnamed subtropical storm. Say what you went.


http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2 ... savsc_.gif

What?! With all due respect, why won't you let that drop?

What proof do you have that this was a subtropical storm? …and don’t say “look at the satellite” or anything of the like. Please, present some bone fide evidence that this is a subtropical system. I know several of the experience meteorologists here on S2K gave undeniable data that backed this system as nothing more than an extratropical low, although impressive looking.

Why contradict the years of experience displayed in regard to this system? Even the NHC (with their numerous forecasters who have degrees in meteorology, specifically in tropical cyclones) said it wasn’t subtropical in nature.

It’s rather funny how, under your cyclone-declaring convention, we would have two or three named storms in the Atlantic already… and it’s only May.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE W ATLC AS THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT E OF BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THU. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE ALONG 32N40W TO NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A WEAKENING UPPER CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N38W. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO S OF 13N EXTENDING TO THE EQUATOR ALTHOUGH ITCZ CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE ESPECIALLY E OF 20W WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG.

[yoda]

This is all that needs to be said. The unnamed subtropical storm. Say what you went.


http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2 ... savsc_.gif

What?! With all due respect, why won't you let that drop?

What proof do you have that this was a subtropical storm? …and don’t say “look at the satellite” or anything of the like. Please, present some bone fide evidence that this is a subtropical system. I know several of the experience meteorologists here on S2K gave undeniable data that backed this system as nothing more than an extratropical low, although impressive looking.

Why contradict the years of experience displayed in regard to this system? Even the NHC (with their numerous forecasters who have degrees in meteorology, specifically in tropical cyclones) said it wasn’t subtropical in nature.

It’s rather funny how, under your cyclone-declaring convention, we would have two or three named storms in the Atlantic already… and it’s only May.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE W ATLC AS THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST PUSHES THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT E OF BERMUDA DURING THE DAY THU. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE ALONG 32N40W TO NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A WEAKENING UPPER CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N38W. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO S OF 13N EXTENDING TO THE EQUATOR ALTHOUGH ITCZ CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE ESPECIALLY E OF 20W WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG.

[Anonymous]

This is all that needs to be said. The unnamed subtropical storm. Say what you went.


http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/2 ... savsc_.gif

Possible though it looks mainly baroclynic to me--the NHC would have been quick to announce and name a subtropical offseason system for recordkeeping sake.

I think the first tropical cyclone of the atlantic will form in either the last week of July or first week of August---so I will say July 31. There are signs though that the season may begin much sooner such as the warmer than normal SSTs and lower carribean pressures but shear remains high and cold fronts still are moving through Florida which means the winter/spring pattern is not ready to let go just yet and the Bermuda/Azores High has yet to establish itself.

Overall I think it will be a late but very productive season lets just hope it is not too destructive.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wish I could say what I went to. I would be banned in a heart second.


I could pretty much write 2 or 3 storms a year off the list if some of these systems did not have some subtropical things to them.

I'm not willing to get banned but I'm temping badly.


One more thing stop playing the darn Nhc card. I'v been watching these things for many years to. If there was a recon or something to prove or disprove it. Then I would agree. But this could of very well been. I don't care what some one else says. Unless they can back up with facts.


In no that was not purely extratropical.

[Anonymous]

I wish I could say what I went to. I would be banned in a heart second.


I could pretty much write 2 or 3 storms a year off the list if some of these systems did not have some subtropical things to them.

I'm not willing to get banned but I'm temping badly.


One more thing stop playing the darn Nhc card. I'v been watching these things for many years to. If there was a recon or something to prove or disprove it. Then I would agree. But this could of very well been. I don't care what some one else says. Unless they can back up with facts.

OK-then by your unofficial records, we should have had a named storm. However, the NHC are the official record keepers and the A storm has yet to be named. So we await Arlene

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We normal see subtropical systems like this once every few years. So its pretty normal. They almost never are upgraded.


My option is worstless here.

[yoda]

We normal see subtropical systems like this once every few years. So its pretty normal. They almost never are upgraded.


My option is worstless here.

Your opinion is taken as much as any others. Its when you close yourself to others opinions do you get "smacked around" by the pros on here. Calmly explain why you believe it is a sub-tropical system with whatever facts you have. When you put a web-site, and leave it at that, much is left to be desired. I value your opinion... just know that you need to back up your statements. Hope this helps.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't think right now I'v had a not so good day. I will try to get into my thinking later.


That could of been a Gale center.

[senorpepr]

You want some facts?

14 Apr 2005/12Z QSCAT data indicated an elongated area of low pressure, but no southeasterly winds.

Surface observations and ship reports indicated a lack of southeasterly winds.

Upper-air analysis indicated a deep trough with an cut-off upper-level low.

Surface observations and ship reports indicated a drop in temperatures of 5-20°F behind the front. Standard surface analysis steps would conclude that a cold, warm, and occluded front are present.

Upper-air analysis indicated deep cold-air advection funneling to the system’s southwestern quadrant.

Satellite analysis and meteorological theories applied to this system indicated that the limited semi-deep convection associated with the system was nothing more than an interaction between the air aloft to the sea surface temperature with some vertical velocities and vorticity advection thrown in the mix.

I’ll stop right there…

There was no need for recon to investigate an extratropical system.

As for “playing the darn Nhc card,” how about stop playing the darn notsogreatone card. Why would I tend to believe a seasoned meteorologist with decades of experience and a master’s degree or Ph.D over a teenage weather hobbyist? Because that makes since! Trust me; these folks have been watching these storms before you were even an idea in your parents’ mind. Furthermore, the experienced meteorologist here on S2K, including myself, have been monitoring these systems for years before you did. Many of these same mets, including myself, have professional backgrounds in meteorology that help support our theories and we have college backgrounds to help support our theories.

This was an occluded low. I don’t know if there is any other way to tell you because you obviously don’t care about the opinions of those who are knowledgeable in this field. Rather, you would care to live in your dream world full of subtropical systems and South Atlantic cyclones.

If you’re tempted so badly to tell me something, feel free to PM me. I’d love to hear what you have to say. See, Matt, I do value your opinion. Believe it or not, I do. However, when you contradict many people with tons more experience than you do and you provide no support of your opinion, your credibility goes down the tube. Trust me, I don’t want to squelch your ideas, but you also have to learn to accept the knowledge and the advice of others.

I don’t mean this as a slam to you or your intelligence. However, I take offense when someone slams my or my peers’ intelligence, which is what you’re doing. People continue to provide you evidence on why systems are extratropical or won’t develop, but you choose to disregard them and continue on your “random cyclonic development hooting and hollering.” I just ask that you give those professionals the credit they deserve instead of playing “Monday morning quarterback.”

We’re all here to learn and share ideas. That only works when one is willing to accept those ideas and provide reason behind their own. Otherwise, we have the Iraqi Information Minister on our hands.

Now, as I said before, feel free to PM me. I want to hear your ideas and your vents. Also, I want you to know I do enjoy viewing your posts because you do have an eye for monitoring potential systems. You normally spot something questionable well before other people do. That should be commended, but please… please try to accept the advice that is being dispensed your way.

[BayouVenteux]

Ahem (uncomfortable cough)...now where were we? Oh yeah, first storm of the season...I'm also of the opinion that it will be extreme late July, probably early August before we see the first storm form, barring some subtropical thing pops right off the southeast coast or something. The westerlies have been cranking in the Caribbean and western Atlantic, and it's going to take some time for the calming effects of a non-El Nino summer to take hold, but they will...and then, like last year the season's likely to blow up like Barry Bonds on "flaxseed oil".

[senorpepr]

Ahem (uncomfortable cough)...now where were we? Oh yeah, first storm of the season...I'm also of the opinion that it will be extreme late July, probably early August before we see the first storm form, barring some subtropical thing pops right off the southeast coast or something. The westerlies have been cranking in the Caribbean and western Atlantic, and it's going to take some time for the calming effercts of a non-El Nino summer to take hold, but they will...and then, like last year the season's likely to blow up like Barry Bonds on "flaxseed oil".

I like the "Barry Bonds on 'flaxseed oil'" comment.

Actually, I tend to agree with you. I've been thinking that the season will kick off around the last couple of weeks of July, although I really don't have a great basis for my reasoning.

[dhweather]

BLAMMO!


Oh, and I say mid July.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry Senr for being limited. Thanks for the facts. I agree with you I do listen to the pro's. I read weather books in enjoy what I do...I'm taking Math classes right now. Hopefully with in the next few years I can get into something. I hope some day I can do something with my life.

I think the first named storm will be a hurricane in Mid August.

[vbhoutex]

For some reason June 21 keeps popping into my head.

Then there will be a lull till late July and the Barry Bonds/Flaxseed scenario comes into play.

[senorpepr]

For some reason June 21 keeps poppin ginto my head.

Then there will be a lull till late July and the Barry Bonds/Flaxseed scenario comes into play.

June 21st happens to be the average day for the first storm to form... (based on the last 50 years)

[senorpepr]

For some reason June 21 keeps poppin ginto my head.

Then there will be a lull till late July and the Barry Bonds/Flaxseed scenario comes into play.

June 21st happens to be the average day for the first storm to form... (based on the last 50 years)

Actually, I was mistaken. That day happens to be June 20th, but close enough.

[Cookiely]

I think I'll stick with my mama's birthday June 26th.

[jeff]

I'm sorry Senr for being limited. Thanks for the facts. I agree with you I do listen to the pro's. I read weather books in enjoy what I do...I'm taking Math classes right now. Hopefully with in the next few years I can get into something. I hope some day I can do something with my life.

I think the first named storm will be a hurricane in Mid August.

That system was not tropical or sub-tropical. It was an extratropical system with frontal boundaries, air mass changes, and baroclinic processes.

[boca]

I say Aug 2nd this year because of the slow transition from strong westerlies retreating up north.

[dhweather]

For some reason June 21 keeps poppin ginto my head.

Then there will be a lull till late July and the Barry Bonds/Flaxseed scenario comes into play.

June 21st happens to be the average day for the first storm to form... (based on the last 50 years)

Actually, I was mistaken. That day happens to be June 20th, but close enough.

Does that math include offsets due to leap years?