Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

Our three day total in Covington is 1.26 inches. Not bad for May!

Edit: Look at the cold air Sunday night. Not only is it cold here, but it is cold for hundreds of miles offshore!

http://weather.unisys.com/eta/60h/eta_850_60h.html

[andycottle]

Snow wizzard....good for you! Am glad to know that being a spotter is on your-to-do list. If you have time, then you`ll want to sign up for it when the next spotter class comes up. There`s one coming up in about 4 more days in the Kent/Fedral way area if your interested, but may be a little late now to sign up. I my self would go to it...just as a review, but that is a bit far for me.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

We have had 3.60 inches of rain in the last 11 days here in North Bend.

[andycottle]

Tim....this makes 7 straight days in a row that I have recieved measureable precip. My precip total for the 12hr period today is .24". Total for the 7 day period is 1.85", and my total for the month so far is 2.72". -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

We are under one persistent cell of heavy rain.

For the last 10 minutes it has been raining unbelievably hard.

We are at .80 for the day.

[TT-SEA]

Following a wet April / May in Seattle... there is strong indication of a dry June and a dry summer overall.

Not good.

1993 continued wet through July but then August and September were bone dry.

That was the exception.

My point is... we can probably expect a 2-3 month period starting soon with much below average rainfall.

I actually went back and looked at all the 500mb maps for the date of May 16th from 1948-2005. Patterns similar to this one had a tendency to evolve into a warm dry situation for the Northwest. It was very interesting. I was thinking it would take all summer to balance out our winter but we have done that now. So I might have to modify my summer forecast. Unless we stay close to 1993.

[andycottle]

Hello all!

Well....like yesterday, and the last three days or so, today was a complete repeat as we had moderate/heavy showers and T-Storms this afternoon and into the early-mid evening hours. I did hear a few rumbles of thunder, but saw no lightning. There was also some small to nickel sized hail in a couple areas this afternoon acording to Seattle NWS storm reports. And cloud wise....they very much looked like something you would see in the mid-west as the shower band clouds were quite a dark grey color and filled with lots of rain. A bit low and a ominus/threatning look to them. So over all, another action packed day of interesting weather.

Here`s some really neat pics of clouds I took this afternoon here in my area of Woodinville. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/f5ef

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I think we still have a good shot at a wet June. After that I am not so sure. It is a very tough call this year. I am thinking that July may be our best shot at having some really nice weather.

[R-Dub]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA
547 AM PDT SAT MAY 21 2005

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.24 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.22 SET IN 1968.

[AnthonyC]

WOW!! Look at that impressive surface low off the coast...currently 985 mb and continuing to strengthen. Unfortunately the track is not conduscive for strong winds over Western Washington...but still VERY impressive for the end of May...let alone January or February.

Anthony

[R-Dub]

So whats the total???

We ended up with .75" for yesterday!! Most all of that fell in about a 1 hr time span!!

[snow_wizzard]

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.24 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.22 SET IN 1968.

Hmmm. Another parallel to 1968. In fact one of the analog years for today is 1968. Almost all of the other ones, once again, are from the 1950s, and from 1993.

That is indeed a beautiful low off the coast. Amazingly well developed for this time of year!

That is an awesome amount of rain you got yesterday R-Dub.

[TT-SEA]

1968 is not on the analog list for today.

More than half are from the 1990s.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I always use the GFS ensemble and Candian ensemble for the analogs. The ensembles smooth out some of the hiccups in the operational models.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... s610_c.gif

I like this list and the Canadian list for today!

By the way...I continue to be mystifed by the fact that 1951 has had more analogs than any other year. That is a tough one to figure!

[TT-SEA]

Last year was similar to 1968... not this year.

Do not look to 1968 for guidance. You will seriously be misled.

Our amazingly wet August last year was a sign of things to come (just like 1968). The incredible rains spread down to California and parked there for the winter. In January we had a very strange pattern with cold air plunging off the coast into a deep low west of California. This pumped in tons of moisture and caused historic flooding rains into SoCal. This is the same pattern we had in 1969.

January of 2005...



January of 1969...




The wet pattern finally shifted north again giving Seattle a very wet April and May in 1969. Sound familiar??

This past winter was our best chance at really cold and snowy. But the trend towards warmer winters ruined it for Seattle. Some places around Bellingham had a taste of those past winters... but global warming is definitely being felt here.

Any connection to 1968 is coincidental.

[snow_wizzard]

Granted, that pattern you show there was similar to 1969 but so many details are wrong. That winter had huge amounts of snow in the mountains and it was never dry here. Many details are off. As a result we have to say that no two years are ever exactly alike. Just fine details can make a monumental difference. It is impossible to say that next winter will be exactly like 1969 - 70. Globally speaking I think 1978 is the best match of all. Like I have said before we will know who is right for before we know it!

I will certainly concede that we blew a golden opportunity last winter. On the other hand there is some precedence to suggest that the patterns of a given winter will often repeat to some degree the next winter. That is why we quite often see cold winters come in pairs or threes. If we repeat the patterns of last winter, with just slightly different details this next winter we may hit the pay station. One final note...I have seen many more analog days with 1968 this year than 1969.

[TT-SEA]

The pattern similarities to 1968 are purely coincidental.

And I am not saying that 1969 is a great match either. But globally its much better.

I think the lack of snow in the mountains is more about too much rain than anything else. That is another huge problem with a warming climate in the Pacific Northwest.

1968 will not serve as a guide for the future.


And the 500mb maps from May of 1969 are not too different than 2005.

Here is May 1969...




And the latest date I could get in May 2005...

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I am becoming increasingly convinced that the closest match to this year is a composite of a number of different years. I just saw something on another thread that really peaked my interest. The Rocky Mountain region is setting record highs right now, and many of them are from 1954. The interesting thing is that we have a had a lot of daily analogs to 1954 and the Rocky Mountain region and north central part of the country set a number of record lows previously held by 1954 earlier this month. While we are not seeing a lot of comparable weather to 1954 in our area, many places are. All I can say is that we all need to be prepared to be surprised this year!

My high / low was 62 - 42 today, which makes for a daily average 5 degrees below normal. 42 ain't a half bad low for this time of year.

[andycottle]

Hey Guys...that 984MB low sure is impressive on visable satellite imagery. And the trailing cold front is so well defined in great detail! In fact, the latest wind map from the NDBC Weather Buoy site....is showing winds right around the center of the storm being 60, 70+ kts! And as of 4:50pm, Destruction Is., had a wind gust of 43mph from the SSE. Currently winds there are ar 33kts with with gusts to 37kts.

Latest MM5 model has this deep low passing just right off the most upper tip of the North Eastern part of Vancouver Island by early afternoon tomorrow as a 996MB low, and then continues up the Candain coast line through the day and into monday morning. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Sea-Tac has officially passed the 3-inch mark for May.

The 7th time since 1948.

Normal rainfall for the month is 1.68 inches.