32N/45W

[Hurricanehink]

It looks like a subtropical storm right now. Convection is starting to completely wrap around, and according to http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/gpar ... _loop.html there isn't a bad chance.
Just another something while we wait for June 1st.

[dhweather]

Woodja edit the link and remove the trailing comma please?

Gracias!

[cycloneye]

Woodja edit the link and remove the trailing comma please?

Gracias!

Done.

[donsutherland1]

Hurricanehink,

Since 1950, 12 tropical cyclones have developed at or north of 30°N and east of 50°W. None developed before July, with Hurricane Dorothy (1966) being the earliest such storm. Also, none of those storms developed with a blocking regime that is as strong as the current one.

So, the historical odds appear very much against this sytem's reaching tropical storm strength given its location, how early in the year it is, and the very strong block presently in place.

Nonetheless, this is an interesting situation to watch.

[Hurricanehink]

Aww, so there's no chance. Still, it's fun to look at. Thanks for the facts Don!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The data going back only 150 years might be against it. But tell that to all of the storms that have broken that rule over the last year. I just got home so I will look into it. You really can't go by that short of time frame.

In remember we have not seen a tropical storm in May since Alison of 1981. Its about time.

[rainstorm]

its the same system i mentioned yesterday

[donsutherland1]

Matt-hurricanewatcher,

There are three things going against this storm's becoming a tropical cyclone:

1) historical odds
2) geographic location (SSTs)
3) synoptic situation (the very strong block)

The synoptic situation and SSTs are the biggest strikes against its development. The historical odds reflect just how difficult it is for such storms to become tropical. If one were looking for an exception to the historical odds, one would need to examine the synoptic environment. It is not favorable.

In contrast, the synoptic environment was unusually favorable for development with last year's rare south Atlantic hurricane that hit Brazil.

[senorpepr]

Matt-hurricanewatcher,

There are three things going against this storm's becoming a tropical cyclone:

1) historical odds
2) geographic location (SSTs)
3) synoptic situation (the very strong block)

The synoptic situation and SSTs are the biggest strikes against its development. The historical odds reflect just how difficult it is for such storms to become tropical. If one were looking for an exception to the historical odds, one would need to examine the synoptic environment. It is not favorable.

In contrast, the synoptic environment was unusually favorable for development with last year's rare south Atlantic hurricane that hit Brazil.

Extremely well said.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, senorpepr.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I never said that it was going to develop. I was saying don't put your money on just 150 years of records. In I never said that this was any where near tropical. It is a extratropical area of low pressure.

1# It has a front
2# Its cold core
3# The covnection is formed from upper level temperature/pressure differnces. Very will cold core/Extratropical.

All I said was don't put your farm up for sale on 150 years of records. In you think, I was saying tropical cyclone development. No not even close. I believe it or not I'm right more often then wrong.(At least I think so) Say what you think.

[depotoo]

according to the loop seems the probability is increasing. wonder what will come of it? the loop was right on for adrian.

and if you look here at the infrared you will see some cold tops starting to appear. I know, i know - nothing will come of it, but it is interesting to watch!
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[donsutherland1]

Matt-hurricanewatcher,

I misunderstood your post. To me, it appeared that you were suggesting that the storm was a good candidate for development.

I had suggested that odds were strongly against its development. You responded that, "The data going back only 150 years might be against it. But tell that to all of the storms that have broken that rule over the last year" which seemed to say that the historical record might not be representative.

You concluded by writing, "...remember we have not seen a tropical storm in May since Alison of 1981. Its about time." With this system being the only "player" on the Atlantic field at this time, I incorrectly thought that you were suggesting its likely development.

[rainstorm]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

[Derek Ortt]

the sat sends mixed signals.

a definate frontal system extends from the low. However, the ridging over the northern semi-circle is similar to that of Jeanne last year

dont think it will do much though as the shear may increase in a few days

[donsutherland1]

Last week, this system drew some notice. However, both the historical odds and synoptic environment were strongly against development. In the end, this system did not develop.

As the hurricane season approaches, it is useful to pay particular attention to SSTs when something seems to be trying to develop in the northern latitudes. Unless SSTs are warm enough, its development prospects will be slim. With regard to the aforementioned system, the following SSTs were present near the date the storm drew notice:



From the map, SSTs in the vicinity of 32N/45W were too cold to support tropical development. Moreover, at this time, sufficient warmth is present only in the extreme south Atlantic, extreme southern GOM, and the Caribbean. If one is familiar with tropical climatology, it is no accident that through mid-June, a sizable majority of the storms that have developed have formed south of 30°N and west of 77°W with the Caribbean and GOM being the favored locations for development.

[vbhoutex]

I never said that it was going to develop. I was saying don't put your money on just 150 years of records. ...All I said was don't put your farm up for sale on 150 years of records. ....

Uh, Matt do you have access to some records we don't concerning tropical development? It seems to me that there is only about 150 years worth of data of any sort on these types of systems. Maybe I misunderstood your meaning here?

[msbee]

donsutherland
thank you for your specific logical reporting.
we need more of that on this forum and less -removed-!
just the facts, just the facts!

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the kind words, Msbee.

[cyclonaut]

I never said that it was going to develop. I was saying don't put your money on just 150 years of records. ...All I said was don't put your farm up for sale on 150 years of records. ....

Uh, Matt do you have access to some records we don't concerning tropical development? It seems to me that there is only about 150 years worth of data of any sort on these types of systems. Maybe I misunderstood your meaning here?

I agree,though one can argue that 150 years of records really is not much when weather has been happening for much more than that.150 years of records is all we got to work with & going beyond that would be geuss work.