5-20-2005 Unoffical Tropcial storm Adrian Forecast

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Tropcial storm Adrian
1am pst/3am est
5-20-2005


Centered 14.8 north/88.5 west
Widns 60 mph
Gust 70 mph
Pressure 991 millibars
Movement Northeastward 12 to 15 mph...

...............

Hurricane Adrian, made landfall just over 3 hours ago south of EL SALVADOR. Strong winds Of 70 to 80 mph. Where reported, with one report from a airport south Of El Salvador of 81 mph gust. Heavy rains with mudslides have been reported. With a news report of 2 death already caused by the cyclone.

Heavy rainfall with mudslides, are expected to be around for the next few days. With upwards of 10 to 20 inches of rain.


Overall discussion...

The trough that was forecasted to pick this system up appears to have done so. The buttom of the trough/kicker is at 88 to 94 west. In which it has picked the cyclone up. The Ir satellite also shows a big pick up with overall forward movement. The shear maps show a 10 knot increase with over all wind shear, over the last 12 hours. In it appears it has becomed more enlongated over the last few hours. We expect this cyclone to pick even more speed up over the next 24 hours.


The overall cyclone has becomed elongated over the last few hours. With a cirualtion becoming harder to find. But we think it has moved to around 14.8 north/88.5 west. In which case it has moved inland a good amount. I'm forecasting this to fellow the hurricane models Bamd,Bamm to the northeast over the next 24 to 48 hours. In make it back over the Caribbean by tomarrow night. Around 17.0 north/86.5 west. The Avn/Gfs doe's no longer show this making it...But remember last night the Avn/Gfs took it more eastward of the models. While the Gfdl,Cmc shown a northern movement to the cyclone. In which the Hurricane models agree. Once over the Caribbean upper level shear should be strong. So no redevelopment is expected. But with the system picking up speed. I'm forecasting a 40 knot tropical storm, when it remerges back into the caribbean.

The Hurricane models, then turn the system to the east-northeast or northeastward. Into the central Atlantic at around 72 hours. In which case it wil become extratropical.


Wind forecast
0 60 mph
6 55 mph
12 45 mph
18 45 mph back into the Caribbean
24 45 mph
36 40 mph
48 30 mph central Atlantic extratropical...

Forecaster Matthew