Adrian skimming.....

[dixiebreeze]

Anyone think Adrian might decide to skim the coastline and cross farther north? Would sure make a difference in where regeneration might occur in the Caribbean --- or GOM.

[ColdFront77]

I just about always give tropical systems a chance of deviating from each forecast model and forecast tracks. We are after all dealing with tropical weather systems and they are forecasts.

[LaBreeze]

Is there any possibility at all of it making it across and into the GOM? I'm thinking that's a big stretch to take place.

[gatorcane]

I detected this more northerly movement last night...but the trough to the NW will soon shove it ENE rapidly. This will happen in the next 24 hours. I think the BAM model tells the story...

[soonertwister]

One thing I've noticed is that on the current forecast track Adrian will come close to the city of San Salvador, population approx 1.6 million people. Considering that the track is fairly close and to the left of that city, that means things could get pretty nasty for them.

Not only is San Salvador nestled between two volcanoes, roughly 80% of the population of the city lives within 10 km of the center of one of the two volcanoes. If the rain is as heavy as I think it might be, it could be a pretty unpleasant place to be.

[ColdFront77]

If anything the trough's distance from Adrian would technically cause it to move more northerly, along with the fact that normally the stronger a tropical cyclone is the more poleward, i.e. toward the north it will move.

[dixiebreeze]

Good points Sooner and Coldfront.

[vbhoutex]

If anything the trough's distance from Adrian would technically cause it to move more northerly, along with the fact that the stronger a tropical cyclone is the more poleward, i.e. toward the north.

The trough is digging in stronger than expected and will begin to push Adrian more ENE relatively soon. Also Adrian is not what is considered a strong hurricane and the pole ward motion due to strength comes more into effect with a stornger storm. Adrian is probably at his peak strength about now or at the latest just prior to landfall since interaction with the extreme topography of the landfall area is already beginning.

[ColdFront77]

True David. My reference was more to what it's strength was earlier. The trough apparently is digging to the south and east of the cold front across the south-central U.S.

[cycloneye]

It is looking less symetrical as the mountains are beginning to affect the circulation.It has reached peak intensity.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with both Cycloneye in vbhoutex that the trough is deeper. In which case when it catchs the system will kick it even faster then expected. So this system should move across pretty fast.

Also yes it is getting to look less oreganized. Mostly because mountains forms there own low pressure set up. Which unequalizes the enviroment for the tropcial cyclone. In less moisture because of the land.

[ColdFront77]

I'm not saying the trough isn't deeper.

However, deeper troughs oftentimes create a more S to N steering flow, rather than a SW to NE one.

[dhweather]

That trough is PLOWING through right now - that will accelerate
Adrian in its movement NE/ENE.

There's a strong SW/NE flow over the Northern Carribean now.

[ColdFront77]

I can't disagree with that. I'm simply giving overall meteorological observations (from past systems).

[Brent]

Not this again...

[ColdFront77]

What? Discussing a tropical system?

[Brent]

What? Discussing a tropical system?

You know what I'm talking about, but this shouldn't be discussed on the board. Send me a PM if you want me to "explain" it.

[cycloneye]

The best thing for both of you to do is to talk via PM's and not at the open forum.

[vbhoutex]

Tom if you think Adrian is moving more Northerly then you need to read this. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 000#880000 Wxman57 pretty well explains what we are seeing.

[ColdFront77]

I never said I think Adrian is going to move northerly. I'm only stating what tropical systems in general can and have done. That doesn not mean I a expecting this system to do that.