Forecasting Tropical Cyclones not easy

[cycloneye]

At tropical anaylisis forum this morning I said in a brief discussion that Adrian was not going to be a hurricane at landfall but we know that it is now.Well I admit that I was not correct and I am eating some crow and admit I was wrong but at a replie down that page I said that if recon finds strong flight level winds then another is the story.This shows that the forecasting in the tropics is not a perfect science as many variables can occur and the tropics can have many surprises many times.Who would haved thought that Ivan was going to turn into a cat 5 hurricane south of 10n and that event was a first.Even the best experts and pro mets can be wrong sometimes in their forecasts.

If any of you have comments about this theme dont hesitate and post your thoughts.

[Cookiely]

Forecasting is a lot of art and a little science at this point, or maybe a lot of science and a little art.

[feederband]

I don't expect a perfect forcast. Thats what I love about storm2k. It doesn't really matter what people perdict because your always going to have your own point of veiw. Heck if there was a such a thing as 100% forcasting the weather would be kind of boring. I like it being somewhat unpredictable.....

[cycloneye]

Both of you make good points.

[donsutherland1]

Luis,

I didn't believe it looked very likely for hurricane status per having seen info. up to around mid-morning and from that I assumed--incorrectly--that it would make landfall as a tropical storm. It still could, but it could also come ashore as a hurricane.

There's still a lot to be learned about hurricane development curves, why some storms develop in suboptimal environments and others fail to develop fully in optimal environments. In fact, perhaps an examination of more mesoscale factors might provide some insight such matters.

Finally, I believe the idea as to where Adrian is likely to track even after crossing into the Caribbean is, at least up to now, looking more predictable.

[dhweather]

Luis - Crow is part of any weather forecasting. The odds of eating it
increase with tropical weather, as it is erratic at best. With that said,
it's always good to read educated guesses on these things, and discuss
them, which s2k allows us to do!

[ColdFront77]

That's the main or only reason why I dislike, almost hate the term. Sure it's used jokingly, but still.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

I didn't believe it looked very likely for hurricane status per having seen info. up to around mid-morning and from that I assumed--incorrectly--that it would make landfall as a tropical storm. It still could, but it could also come ashore as a hurricane.

There's still a lot to be learned about hurricane development curves, why some storms develop in suboptimal environments and others fail to develop fully in optimal environments. In fact, perhaps an examination of more mesoscale factors might provide some insight such matters.

Finally, I believe the idea as to where Adrian is likely to track even after crossing into the Caribbean is, at least up to now, looking more predictable.

Yes agree don distint from track forecasts that are very good the intensity forecasts still have to be better.About Adrian there is no problem in terms of the track from the start of this cyclone.

[vbhoutex]

That's the main or only reason why I dislike, almost hate the term. Sure it's used jokingly, but still.

What term are you talking about Tom?

[Brent]

Yeah... that's part of what makes forecasting so fun though. I hate predictable weather.

[cycloneye]

Yeah... that's part of what makes forecasting so fun though. I hate predictable weather.

The unpredictable right?

[dougjp]

I think, and I bet its shared by most, what you more experienced guys/gals do here and on the professional board is fantastic. I mean its not like the opinions are being brought forth by crazy people without backup information. There are other places on the internet to find people who just want to hear themselves!

Two things are happening here at the same time. First valuable and VERY up to date information is being disseminated, and second we are being provided with the tools to learn. Personally the only thing sometimes lacking is a simple link or two to graphs and models.

So a big thank you and if you feel you are eating crow, well then imagine its a great tasting turkey with stuffing and cranberry sauce!

[Rainband]

Don't feel bad Luis. I said it looked bad last night. At the time I thought it did. The next few times I checked it looked to be improving. Tropics is not an exact science and sometimes Crow is a dish better served cold. I am sure there are going to be many "predictions" this season that fall short. The whole point of S2K is for amatuers and Pros alike to co inside and learn from one another while Watching and tracking the storms. No matter how much we think we know, We can all learn something from each other. We are lucky to have many experienced members here and as lucky in the same aspect to have many, me included, less experienced Members to educate. The Best thing about S2K is you don't have to be afraid to ask a question and there will be a very educated answer..waiting in wings. EveryBody Enjoy the Season and Enjoy S2K. Thats why we are "The Best Board on the Net" and "The Legal Addiction"

Sincerely
Johnathan

[BayouVenteux]

"Chin up" Luis. Acknowledging nature's eternal ability to humble and astound, particularly in the realm of tropical weather, is an honorable thing.

Keep up the good work!

[dhweather]

That's the main or only reason why I dislike, almost hate the term. Sure it's used jokingly, but still.

What, crow?

[cycloneye]

That's the main or only reason why I dislike, almost hate the term. Sure it's used jokingly, but still.

What, crow?

What term you mean eating crow?