Special advisory on Hurricane Adrian=75 mph

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Adrian Special Advisory Number 9


Statement as of 11:00 am PDT on May 19, 2005



...Air Force plane indicates that Adrian is a hurricane...
At 11 am PDT...1800z...the governments of Guatemala and El Salvador
have upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning to a Hurricane Warning for
the Pacific coast of Guatemala from sipacate eastward to the El
Salvador-Honduras border.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Honduras...including the golfo de fonseca...and for Guatemala from
sipacate westward to the Guatemala-Mexico border.

Interests elsewhere in Central America should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 am PDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Adrian was located
near latitude 12.6 north... longitude 90.6 west or about 120
miles... 195 km... southwest of San Salvador El Salvador.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and a
general northeastward motion...with some increase in forward
speed...is likely over the next 24 hours. On this track...the
center of Adrian will be very near the coast within the warning
area later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. Adrian is a category one hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some additional
strengthening is possible before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles...110 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance
plane was 982 mb...29.00 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and
to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Repeating the 11 am PDT position...12.6 N... 90.6 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 982 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 11 am PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 2 PM
PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila

[LaBreeze]

When is landfall predicted at this time?

[cycloneye]

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1800Z 12.6N 90.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.4N 89.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.6N 88.3W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.6N 84.4W 25 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


By tommorow early morning.