Where exactly will Adrian go after the crossover?

[kevin]

I'm not sure it will cross over.

[cycloneye]

It wont survive the big mountains of Guatemala and El Salvador.Only a Weak remmant low will be left in the Caribbean Sea if even one is left.

[Rainband]

The gfdl is on something But the gfs develops a low south of cuba this week so ...time will tell.

[x-y-no]

Well, I don't see my my most likely scenarion in your list, so I'll just post it:

Across the central Caribbean to eastern Cuba and/or Hispaniola. Probably just a rain event, but some slight chance of a little redevelopment.

Jan

[x-y-no]

It wont survive the big mountains of Guatemala and El Salvador.Only a Weak remmant low will be left in the Caribbean Sea if even one is left.

Agreed. There should be some kind of remnant rain event at the very least, though.

Lots of mountains where this is going:

[x-y-no]

i see . I did put Cuba and Hispanola on the list..lol , and then also simply into the Atlantic..

I must be blind ... still don't see it ...

No big deal.

[Anonymous]

It wont survive the big mountains of Guatemala and El Salvador.Only a Weak remmant low will be left in the Caribbean Sea.

Agree None of the above. Though IMHO, it wont cross because its climatoligically unlikely before June 1st and its just rare to see a system change basins like that. But Storms have moved from the gulf-across the southeast and went offshore of the carolinas/virginia and reintensified and Jeanne was weakenned to almost nothing over hispanolia last year--that is very mountainous---but it didnt kill her.

[kevin]

The Isle of Youth is flat.

[x-y-no]

It may pass S. of Guatemala over the large lake north of Panama, there is generally flatter land...if this were to happen it would benefit with both almost no mountains and a small amount of land to pass over, and then if it continued ENE or NE the Cuban Island and Hispanola and possibly Nassau may be in trouble....right?

Lake Nicaragua. Yeah, it could go that way, I think it'll try to cross west of there though. We'll see.

I mean, don't Hurricanes kinda get pushed around by Mountains...wasn't Andrew affected by the skyscrapers in Miami or something that pushed the Hurricane just barely south or is that just a myth cause i mean skyscrapers are so small and the hurricanes so large, but I can imagine a mountain affecting the trajectory of a hurricane and kind of pushing them towards a spot where they can kind of squeeze through. Kind of how Charely just completly skirted AROUND the Isle of Youth I think it was..?

I can guarantee that Andrew wasn't affected by Miami's skyscrapers.

In general, though, there is a "frictional effect" with land which can affect a hurricane's path. Doubtful that it would be strong enough to steer this system all the way around the mountains in its path, though. The dominant factor is the steering currents.

Jan

[Rainband]

Charley avoided Jamica like the plague

[ColdFront77]

I'm thinking more Cuba and the Southern Keys will get the worst of whatever is left...

As I mentioned in another threads, there won't be a "whatever is left" if the expected regeneration
(some forecasters are believing it's more probable than others) in the Caribbean Sea occurs.

[Coredesat]

I voted for "simply go into the Atlantic" (and then I saw the western Caribbean option ), but I expect that if there is a "whatever's left" after it crosses over, it will probably get sheared apart in the Caribbean unless it somehow moves southeastward from there.