Adrian Has A More Northerly Component

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:11 pm

It may be a wabble, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of South Florida/Keys impact down the road...I just don't see a straight ENE shot through the Caribbean and out into the Atlantic.... :eek:

#2 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:13 pm

Silly, it'll be a CAT 5 into North Carolina!

:lol:

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:15 pm

yeah, I know people think I am crazy but let's think about the models that they are using and how often they are used to forecast this crossover situation...? I would take the 5 day with a grain of salt.

#4 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:17 pm

I sincerely think the zonal flow over the US will not allow "it"
to get too close to Florida - It'll go between central Cuba and Puerto Rico
on its way to the Atlantic graveyard.

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:30 pm

Here's the first sign that their models are diverging some as it approaches the Caribbean. Also, it appears it is taking the northern part of the cone tonight and slowing down some....

:eek:

Snippet from NHC 11:00 PM Forecast Discussion 3.18.05

THERE IS SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL
MOTION...065/07...RATHER UNCERTAIN. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.

StormChasr · #6 Postby **StormChasr** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:35 pm

50 plus knot shear just South of Florida? Ain't gonna happen. Relax, and take a Valium.

Javlin · #7 Postby **Javlin** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:40 pm

BC see where the winds are flowing across CA right now that is where Adrian is going to cross.That is about 13'-14'N then ENE to see LUIS like he needs it.

#8 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 11:00 pm

let's just wait and see

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #9 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 18, 2005 11:01 pm

If anything a more northward movement would take it over a smaller piece of land. If it go's east or east-northeast it has more land.

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:46 am

anbody noticing that it seems to be following the northern part of the cone here?

#11 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:48 am

To me it looks like it is heading towards NW San Salvador, not towards the center...

StormChasr · #12 Postby **StormChasr** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:54 am

anbody noticing that it seems to be following the northern part of the cone here?

UH, OH. Raquet and Swim Club beware! :eek:

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:56 am

stormchasr you are funny I have to admit....I don't usually hit the raquet club though...maybe the golf club. lol.

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu May 19, 2005 8:41 am

boca_chris wrote:Here's the first sign that their models are diverging some as it approaches the Caribbean. Also, it appears it is taking the northern part of the cone tonight and slowing down some....

Snippet from NHC 11:00 PM Forecast Discussion 3.18.05

THERE IS SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL
MOTION...065/07...RATHER UNCERTAIN. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.

Which part of that(bolded portion) don't you understand? It clearly states that whatever may be left of Adrian is expected to continue on a track that keeps it well South of the US.

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 19, 2005 8:45 am

certainly looks like it is moving more N of NE then E.....if you look at the blowup of clouds in the western caribbean, they are moving more NW now which tells me that the high in the southern caribbean may be strengthening some. That would cause this more northernly movement at least temporarily. It does appear thought that it should resume the ENE movement because the trough to the northwest continues to dig down...

#16 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 19, 2005 9:15 am

It's aiming for Guatemala right now....moving more NNE as it is feeling the influences of the southern Caribbean high....

wxcrazytwo · #17 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Thu May 19, 2005 9:32 am

boca_chris wrote:It's aiming for Guatemala right now....moving more NNE as it is feeling the influences of the southern Caribbean high....

I hope your dead wrong because my leaves tonight from Guatemala City..

x-y-no · #18 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu May 19, 2005 9:33 am

It's always difficult to judge movement based on sattelite imagery when there's no well-defined eye. Adrian may be heding in a more northerly direction at the moment, or it may be that the current flare of convection is biased to the north of the LLC.

The good thing is Recon will be in there this afternoon and we'll have a reliable fix.

Jan

#19 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 19, 2005 9:35 am

it certainly looks to be moving more NNE....I think it may be finding a weakness in the trough and/or being influenced temporarily by the H in the Southern caribbean...

wxwonder12 · #20 Postby **wxwonder12** » Thu May 19, 2005 9:38 am

what link are you looking at???

Adrian Has A More Northerly Component

Adrian Has A More Northerly Component

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