Quick poll=A hurricane by 5 PM Advisory?

[cycloneye]

I say that with the developing eye feature I say yes.

[skysummit]

I said yes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say yes it has developed a eye!!!

[Johnny]

Yep

[Anonymous]

I say no. Probably 70 mph at 5pm, 75 mph at 8pm, and then as the inner core develops, more rapid deepening to 105 mph by landfall. But then again, thats me.

[HurricaneBill]

I think they'll bump it up to 70 mph.

[gatorcane]

the hurricane center will be conservative because I think they want to show the accuracy of their predictions...they only predicted tropical storm strength and that is it....so I could see 70mph to keep them safe.

[cycloneye]

I will change my vote to no as they are going on the conservative side.65-70 mph is my range at 5.

[gatorcane]

in fact their models are doing a poor job so far with the intensity forecast....and I'm not quite sure their projection forecast is good past 3+ days but that is another story...

[dhweather]

I had to vote no - I don't think they'll go with Hurricane status unless
something changes dramatically in the next few hours. I suspect
they'll have it as a 70MPH TS

[hurricanefloyd5]

i say yes huricane by 5p.m.

[soonertwister]

I'm going to say not until the interim advisory at 8 at the earliest, possibly not even at 11. Although the mid-level circulation appears strong and well-organized, the LLC seems to be disconnected. Until some solid evidence appears to indicate a completely closed surface low, such as verifiable 65+ knot winds, I think Adrian remains a TS.

[BayouVenteux]

I concur with the 70 mph strong tropical storm contingent. Someone else on another thread remarked how the QUIKSCAT looked to be nonsupportive of a good surface circulation to match the mid-level, so despite a relatively strong satellite visual presentation, imo, it's not...quite...there...yet.

[dhweather]

The NAY'S have it.

[krysof]

it should probably be a hurricane by tomorrow

[Anonymous]

Things may change.

8pm-Maybe a 65-70 mph TS
11pm-Maybe 70-75 mph

After Cat 1 status is achieved, the system may begin to deepen more rapidly.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING!

[vbhoutex]

Things may change.

8pm-Maybe a 65-70 mph TS
11pm-Maybe 70-75 mph

After Cat 1 status is achieved, the system may begin to deepen more rapidly.

Why do you think this Mike? It will be approaching land and having more and more interaction with the mountains. What conditions do you see that might make Adrian deepen as opposed to staying the same or losing strength? What does reaching Cat1 status have to do with more rapid deepening(as you imply)?

[Anonymous]

Right now, Adrian does not have a well defined inner core structure. Once it becomes a hurricane, the inner core should begin to have a better stucture. Once that occurs, more steady intensification should take place.

As for shear, only about 10 kts:::


Upper level divergence is high over the top of it:::


And waters are very very warm. Therefore, I think there is a strong possibility that "Hurricane" Adrian will make landfall as a potent storm of 90-100 mph. I hope that answers your question

[HURAKAN]

The system will have a better opportunity to survive some time after crossing to the Caribbean if it continues moving more eastward than northward, as you see in the map above, the Eastern Caribbean has much less shear than its opposite.