18:00 UTC Models

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN (EP012005) ON 20050518 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050518 1800 050519 0600 050519 1800 050520 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 92.8W 12.0N 92.3W 13.6N 91.4W 15.6N 90.2W
BAMM 10.8N 92.8W 11.8N 92.4W 12.8N 91.6W 13.9N 90.5W
LBAR 10.8N 92.8W 12.0N 91.7W 14.0N 91.0W 16.2N 90.2W
SHIP 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS 60KTS
DSHP 50KTS 57KTS 61KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050520 1800 050521 1800 050522 1800 050523 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 88.7W 21.8N 82.7W 23.5N 71.4W 23.7N 56.9W
BAMM 15.2N 89.2W 17.7N 85.7W 20.0N 81.1W 21.3N 75.3W
LBAR 18.3N 88.7W 21.7N 80.9W 26.5N 68.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 47KTS 33KTS 0KTS
DSHP 32KTS 25KTS 16KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 92.8W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 94.4W DIRM12 = 65DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 95.2W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM


They dont have it as a hurricane this afternoon.Yesterday they didn't haved it as a storm and after they came out it was named Adrian.In other words I dont put too much on the intensity from these models but anyway only to look at the tracks of them it is a good tool.

[gatorcane]

I'm not putting much in the 5 day forecast either...this is an unusual scenario and I think the models are going to have difficult 5+ days out....let's just see if this thing really stays NE for 5+ days...I'm doubting it...