Intermediate Advisory=60 mph

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Adrian Intermediate Advisory Number 4a


Statement as of 11:00 am PDT on May 18, 2005



...Adrian continues moving northeastward toward El Salvador and
Guatemala...
... A Hurricane Watch may be required later today...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the entire coast of El
Salvador...and the Pacific coast of Guatemala. A Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of El
Salvador and Guatemala later today.

Interests in Central America should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 am PDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.9 north...longitude 92.9 west or about
270 miles... 440 km...southwest of the Guatemala-El Salvador
border.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph...15 km/hr. This
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
... 75 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Outer rainbands containing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
are already affecting the coastal areas of Guatemala...and could
begin affecting El Salvador later today and tonight. Rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher amounts of
near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in association
with Adrian. This system also has the potential to produce
torrential rainfall over other portions of Central America
during the next few days.

Repeating the 11 am PDT position...10.9 N... 92.9 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure...997 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Stewart

[x-y-no]

The way that eye is popping out, I'd say 60mph is overly conservative.

Jan

EDIT: Also, I think that position is a bit too far north, and it sure doesn't look like it's moving NE to me ... Maybe I need some new glasses ...

EDIT again ... never mind ... just refreshed the loop and it definitely is further north now ... must have been a southward wobble earlier. (oh no! wobble watching! )

[Brett Adair]

Well, I was close with my prediction of it being 65mph. I do believe that Stewart did a wonderful job with upping the winds on the intermediate advisory. This thing is still at cane strength IMO if not very close to it by the 5 EDT advisory.

[Hyperstorm]

I was thinking more into the 65-70 mph range, but I think it's good enough. Tropical Storms can have eye features. Of course, that is when they're VERY close to becoming hurricanes. If it persists through this afternoon, it will likely be upgraded at 5 pm...

[dhweather]

I'd say it's rapidly headed to being a cane.

[Brett Adair]

I was thinking more into the 65-70 mph range, but I think it's good enough. Tropical Storms can have eye features. Of course, that is when they're VERY close to becoming hurricanes. If it persists through this afternoon, it will likely be upgraded at 5 pm...

I agree. I also agree with your comments on the vertically stacked feature turning this thing before long. The UL/ML circulation has been doing a bomb feature for the past 18 hours and it is now transitioning to the SFC level. I think especially when RECON gets in there this evening the divergence looks to continue to increase and allow this thing to strengthen all afternoon. May be an 80mph cane by 00z.

[cyclonaut]

I was thinking more into the 65-70 mph range, but I think it's good enough. Tropical Storms can have eye features. Of course, that is when they're VERY close to becoming hurricanes. If it persists through this afternoon, it will likely be upgraded at 5 pm...

Me too.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This will be a hurricane at 8pm pst.

[Hyperstorm]

Recon will not be there until tomorrow.

The cloud pattern is starting to elongate north-south which indicates a turn is in order shortly, probably before tomorrow morning. The turn, as I mentioned in another thread, will likely be abrupt since the system is intensifying at a fairly rapid pace.

One thing to note is that the circulation is fairly small, similar to Charley last year. That means that it will not take too much for the circulation to become disrupted thoughout its passage over Central America, regardless of the strength when it makes landfall.

The LLC will probably dissipate, but the MLC should make it across. The question will be if the MLC regenerates again over the Caribbean.