Initial Thoughts on TS Adrian Following Crossover

[donsutherland1]

Earlier, I had noted:

This system, if it survives the trek across Central America, will probably pass to the south and east of Florida. However, there is some possibility that it or its remnants could move across southwestern Florida.

Right now, if I had to choose a reasonable candidate for a possible analog storm--for an approximate track--it would probably be Tropical Storm Arlene (1981):



The 500 mb height anomalies forecast by the GFS ensembles and those that preceded the development of Arlene are somewhat similar:



Given the GFS ensembles, a track somewhat to the left of Arlene's might be in order.

Early estimates for the possible approach toward Florida/Florida Straits:

20.0N 82.5W
21.0N 79.3W
22.0N 77.4W

Pursuant to the latest guidance, these ideas remain in relatively good shape at this point.

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, Tropical Storm Adrian continued to track to the Northeast. At this stage, the hurricane models are in close agreement as to Adrian's near-term track.

For those who are interested as to whether systems crossing from the eastern Pacific to the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico have ever regenerated into at least tropical storm status, Tropical Storm #1 (1965) formed as a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific and later became a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

It should be noted that the synoptic situation then was quite different from the present one. The only thing I wanted to note is that it is not impossible for such systems to regenerate into named storms. Right now it remains to be seen how well Adrian will survive its journey across land. At this time, as far as the track goes, the analog from last night still appears to provide some good guidance.

[cyclonaut]

Hmm that May 81 storm was also named Arlene.

It seems to be moving more E/NE than NE @ this time(Thats how it looks to me on satellite)..It should bypass Florida to the south but it could mean more heavy rains for PR if this east trend continues.

[dhweather]

Don - great historical analysis!

[cajungal]

It won't survive the trip over Central America. The mountains will break it up. This a weak system to begin with. The US has nothing to worry about on this one.

[dhweather]

Oh, I agree - the terrain will slaughter the core of the system.
And if it does make it across, I think the remains will go through
the Carribean and out to sea in the Atlantic.

[soonertwister]

I think that if Adrian stays south of Honduras then it won't be as disrupted by the terrain as if he goes across more to the north. The Sierra Madres peter out a little bit as you go south from Mexico, and they aren't terribly high. The highest mountains of Nicaragua are in the north, and the highest elevation in the country is right about 8,000 feet.

If the core of the storm goes south of those taller mountains, I think it will remain a TS. Anywhere north of there would be iffy, IMO. And he's projected to go north, so the storm very well may not survive the terrain.

[gatorcane]

Don, didn't you mean southeastern FL in you initial post...?

[donsutherland1]

Cyclonaut,

FWIW, since the naming of Atlantic tropical cyclones began, there have been 8 cases in which a storm was named "Arlene:" 1959, 1963, 1967, 1971, 1981, 1987, 1993, and 1999.

[donsutherland1]

Boca_chris,

I probably should have stated that there's a small chance that it might cut across southern Florida. Given the synoptic situation, I don't believe that it would turn back toward the Florida Peninsula, though some early storms have turned back toward the U.S. Mainland in different setups.

[donsutherland1]

Cajungal,

I'm not sure that Adrian will remain a tropical depression much less a tropical storm after crossing land. Overall, I believe this storm or its remnants will likely pass to the south and east of Florida. There's a small chance that they could cross southern Florida. However, I believe the former idea is much more likely and all that I have seen through mid-morning suggests that this remains the case.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks dhweather.

[Zadok]

It looks like Accuweather has is heading towards the other side of Cuba.

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[skysummit]

Well, that map is surely interesting. I wonder where their thoughts are coming from?

[donsutherland1]

Zadok,

It's very early in the game as far as where the storm tracks once it enters the Caribbean. I believe it will track somewhat to the left of the path taken by Arlene (1981) and gave some coordinates. From that map, it's too soon to tell where AccuWx would track it once it gets into the Caribbean.

I like something closer to the Arlene (1981) track given the similar synoptic setups. However, there was a June storm that formed at 19.4N 83.6W and turned due north and north-northwestward:

[cyclonaut]

donsutherland1;

I know there have been many Arlenes but the possibility of this being the 2nd May Arlene is interesting..I don't think there have been 2 May Atlantic storms with the same name before..

Having said that there is no guarantee this will even get a name once in the Caribbean..Its got a lot of obstacles to overcome.

[donsutherland1]

Cyclonaut,

FWIW, May 1959 and May 1981 both had a storm named Arlene. Arlene is the only name used twice in May. May has not had 3 storms with the same name.

June, July and August each had 2 storms named Arlene, as well. The record number of storms with the same name in a month is 6: Florence in September.

[LarryWx]

donsutherland1;

I know there have been many Arlenes but the possibility of this being the 2nd May Arlene is interesting..I don't think there have been 2 May Atlantic storms with the same name before.

IF it survives intact as a closed surface low, I've been told that it would retain the name of Adrian per today's S2K thread on the subject. You can see the thread at the following link:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=62584

[rainstorm]

wasnt 81 a slow season? maybe a good sign

[cyclonaut]

So it has happened already with 2 storms with the same name in May...& Arlene no less..Shouldve checked Unysis more thouroughly.

Thanks for the info Don.