Is Adrian trying to see? (Edited)

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 18, 2005 6:43 am

cycloneye wrote:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Above link is a Visble Image Loop.

It looks better organized this morning with a few curved bands.IMO some Tropical Storm Watches would be good to be issued soon to make the people at portions of CentralAmerica aware that something is off the coast that may cause flooding rains but not very strong winds.Looks like TD#1-E will be classified very soon.

Disclaimer=This is Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) opinion only about having watches issued and not an official word.Any official information you can go to the National Hurricane Center.

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:42 am

A hole has opened around 10n.

x-y-no · #23 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:44 am

cycloneye wrote:A hole has opened around 10n.

Yeah, but the center is WNW of there ...

#24 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:47 am

x-y-no wrote:
cycloneye wrote:A hole has opened around 10n.

Yeah, but the center is WNW of there ...

Yes after more closer view the center is a little more north than 10n.That hole is cloud movement.

#25 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:56 am

I wonder if we'll see a rapid intensity cycle today? Hmmmmmmm

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:11 am

Yikes now that hole is closer to the center.That is an eye feature.

cyclonaut · #27 Postby **cyclonaut** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:15 am

Yes that does appear to be an eye feature.Its ben maintaining this look for a while now.

x-y-no · #28 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:19 am

cyclonaut wrote:Yes that does appear to be an eye feature.Its ben maintaining this look for a while now.

Don't think so ... it's moving NNW, and the system is moving ENE. It's just a hole in the clouds that are wrapping around. I think the center is about a degree away.

Jan

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:21 am

x-y-no wrote:
cyclonaut wrote:Yes that does appear to be an eye feature.Its ben maintaining this look for a while now.

Don't think so ... it's moving NNW, and the system is moving ENE. It's just a hole in the clouds that are wrapping around. I think the center is about a degree away.

Jan

Even if it is not a true eye it is easy to say that Adrian is intensifying and becoming a very dangerous storm for CentralAmerica as we speak.

x-y-no · #30 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:24 am

cycloneye wrote:Even if it is not a true eye it is easy to say that Adrian is intensifying and becoming a very dangerous storm for CentralAmerica as we speak.

No question about that. I won't be at all surprised to have a hurricane this afternoon/evening.

Jan

Brett Adair · #31 Postby **Brett Adair** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:37 am

Okay....I am loving the symmetry of this system this morning. Nice and compact vertically stacked cyclone with nice divergence features aloft expanding the outflow. Inflow at the SFC continues to grow tighter as we are still in the intensification cycle. Almost some what of an "eye" structure trying to show itself in the center of circulation at times. I still say Cat 1-2 at landfall given the look of it this morning. Also nice T #'s of 2.5/2.5 and QG parameters looking good.....I say shes going to grow until she hits that mountainous landmass with 30C waters all the way in. As for the crossover, I am a little worried about the forward speed....shes going to have to kick it in gear a little.

cyclonaut · #32 Postby **cyclonaut** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:48 am

Id say it up to 65 right now by the looks of it.

#33 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:52 am

I agree Jan, within 24 hours we should have a hurricane.

Brett Adair · #34 Postby **Brett Adair** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:55 am

65 is a good number for the present time I do believe. If we could just get a RECON plane out in it....but that's not going to happen. I believe T numbers will continue to come on up as SCAT looks overly impressive at this time to me. Expect a cane by days end.

x-y-no · #35 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed May 18, 2005 11:07 am

I'd almost forgotten how devilishly hard it can be to try and judge the motion of a storm like this just from staring at sattelite loops.

Sure looks to me like the ceter is a little bit south and east of where they say it is, though.

Jan

James · #36 Postby **James** » Wed May 18, 2005 11:40 am

Itlooks like a curved band has appeared on satellite imagery. Could this be the beginnings of an eye feature?

x-y-no · #37 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed May 18, 2005 11:43 am

James wrote:Itlooks like a curved band has appeared on satellite imagery. Could this be the beginnings of an eye feature?

Yes ... see Derek Ortt's comment in http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=62586

James · #38 Postby **James** » Wed May 18, 2005 11:46 am

Thanks.

James · #39 Postby **James** » Wed May 18, 2005 12:06 pm

Adrian has himself what looks like an eye.

Hyperstorm · #40 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed May 18, 2005 12:13 pm

Yes, Adrian is trying to see and not only that, it is trying to intensify RAPIDLY. Once this type of a small eye starts to clear up, we could be in for trouble. Category 1 at landfall is pretty much a given...Category 2 or higher becoming a pretty good bet. The GFDL may be on to something. Stay tuned...

Is Adrian trying to see? (Edited)

Re: Floater on top of 90E

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