00:00 UTC Model Guidance mantains EPAC system as TD 1-E

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 7:41 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (EP012005) ON 20050518 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050518 0000 050518 1200 050519 0000 050519 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 94.9W 11.0N 94.4W 12.2N 94.0W 13.5N 93.5W
BAMM 10.1N 94.9W 10.8N 94.3W 11.5N 93.7W 12.3N 92.9W
LBAR 10.1N 94.9W 11.0N 94.2W 12.5N 93.9W 14.0N 93.7W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050520 0000 050521 0000 050522 0000 050523 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 92.8W 18.5N 89.9W 22.9N 83.8W 26.3N 75.4W
BAMM 13.5N 91.4W 15.9N 87.4W 19.4N 83.0W 22.4N 77.8W
LBAR 15.3N 93.5W 17.7N 91.4W 20.4N 85.2W 26.9N 75.7W
SHIP 49KTS 48KTS 39KTS 22KTS
DSHP 49KTS 34KTS 25KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.1N LONCUR = 94.9W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 95.5W DIRM12 = 71DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 96.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

According to the guidance no Adrian for the 8 PM PDT advisory.Still crawling ENE.Ship is a little down in intensity from the 18:00 run.By the morning it well may be another story and Adrian may be born.

Scorpion · #2 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue May 17, 2005 7:56 pm

Looks to be organizing well. I think a minimal hurricane for landfall.

#3 Postby **dhweather** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:05 pm

Does look to be trying to wind up - perhaps TS or cat 1 at landfall.

hurricanefloyd5 · #4 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:09 pm

I THINK IF IT IS A CAT.1 CANE AND MOVES ABIT FASTER THEN I THINK IT MIGHT HAVE A CHANCE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP CROSSOVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek:

#5 Postby **skysummit** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:15 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:I THINK IF IT IS A CAT.1 CANE AND MOVES ABIT FASTER THEN I THINK IT MIGHT HAVE A CHANCE TO SURVIVE THE TRIP CROSSOVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It could be VERY interesting, that's for sure. Is there anything coming down that would help it "push" across C.A. just a little faster?

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:20 pm

17/2345 UTC 10.3N 94.8W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

The SSD dvorak sat estimates mantained the same from the afternoon.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:29 pm

This now has a well defined Cdo. I say 40 knots right now. Might even be a little more 45 to 50 knots.

Scorpion · #8 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:31 pm

I agree. When will they get recon in there?

#9 Postby **MGC** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:49 pm

Don't know if recon is scheduled, good question. TD1-E looks to becoming better organized this evening. Unless there is a ship still near the center I'd expect the NHC will keep it as a TD on the next advisory.....MGC

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:52 pm

I expect a eye to start forming with in the next 12 to 24 hours at the rate is it oreganizing. The nhc has done good so far. But can they keep it up?

:roll:

boca · #11 Postby **boca** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:00 pm

It looks pretty good on sat.

Scorpion · #12 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:01 pm

Im thinking a Cat 2 or 3 for landfall if this organization keeps up.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #14 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:20 pm

I guest like Charley they fellow the data they think they have? But don't even care to look at the system? Welcome to 2005!!!

depotoo · #15 Postby **depotoo** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:59 pm

matt- don't start in on the nhc please.

00:00 UTC Model Guidance mantains EPAC system as TD 1-E

00:00 UTC Model Guidance mantains EPAC system as TD 1-E

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