Chance the track will change

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boca
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Chance the track will change

#1 Postby boca » Tue May 17, 2005 10:29 pm

Is their a chance the track will change or deviate more north to be more of a threat to western Cuba and the keys?
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soonertwister
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#2 Postby soonertwister » Tue May 17, 2005 10:30 pm

Are you good at cards?
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#3 Postby boca » Tue May 17, 2005 10:32 pm

I'm good at poker.
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#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue May 17, 2005 10:33 pm

soonertwister wrote:Are you good at cards?


Hey Sooner, glad to see you back on S2K! :D
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#5 Postby soonertwister » Tue May 17, 2005 10:37 pm

I'm a little late, but not too late...

Thanks for noticing, dixie. It's good to hear from you, too!
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#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue May 17, 2005 10:55 pm

soonertwister wrote:I'm a little late, but not too late...

Thanks for noticing, dixie. It's good to hear from you, too!


Well, stick around, looks like a roller coaster season ahead.
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#7 Postby soonertwister » Tue May 17, 2005 11:01 pm

I'm not going anywhere anytime soon... :)
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ColdFront77

Re: Chance the track will change

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed May 18, 2005 12:24 am

boca wrote:Is their a chance the track will change or deviate more north to be more of a threat to western Cuba and the keys?

Most definitely the forecast track can change or deviate more to the north (to become more of threat to western Cuba and the Florida Keys), for two reasons:

1.) Stronger systems move more poleward and
2.) More often than not forecast tracks shift "to the left" opposed to "to the right."
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Wed May 18, 2005 4:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Chance the track will change

#9 Postby Brett Adair » Wed May 18, 2005 2:39 am

ColdFront77 wrote:
boca wrote:Is their a chance the track will change or deviate more north to be more of a threat to western Cuba and the keys?

Most definitely the forecast track can change or deviate more to the north. For two reasons:

1.) Stronger systems move more poleward and
2.) More often than not forecast tracks shift "to the left" opposed to "to the right."


I love statistics! :D
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ColdFront77

#10 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed May 18, 2005 5:09 am

Wonderful, Brett. :D
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed May 18, 2005 5:10 am

I think it will also depend on how strong is the trough that the NHC is expecting to take the system to the NE.
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Re: Chance the track will change

#12 Postby Cookiely » Wed May 18, 2005 5:12 am

ColdFront77 wrote:
boca wrote:Is their a chance the track will change or deviate more north to be more of a threat to western Cuba and the keys?

Most definitely the forecast track can change or deviate more to the north (to become more of threat to western Cuba and the Florida Keys), for two reasons:

1.) Stronger systems move more poleward and
2.) More often than not forecast tracks shift "to the left" opposed to "to the right."

I love this website. I learn something new everyday. Thanks for the tip.
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