Personal Forecast Discussion of 01E and Naming Conventions

[DoctorHurricane2003]

1. Naming Conventions

Many of you seem confused about the naming conventions, that is, if Adrian crosses over, what will its name be? Under original rules, it would change to Arlene, HOWEVER, these rules were changed in 2001 (Remember, if Iris had maintained its circulation, it would still be Iris in the EPAC).

So what will its name be if it crosses over? That depends:

It will still be ADRIAN if...
It is a TS after emerging
It is a TD after emerging
It still has the same SURFACE LOW exiting as it did entering

It will become ARLENE if...
The surface low dissipates and reforms and the mid level circulation is still intact.
The entire system becomes a wave of low pressure, but reforms in the Caribbean.

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2. The following is a personal opinion on the future of 01E. More expert opinions can be found in the Storm 2K Tropical Analysis Forum, and as always, for all official information, please visit the National Hurricane Center's website at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

TD 01E is currently in a very favorable environment with warm SSTs and low shear aloft, and is being steered towards the ENE by a trough to its west. 01E should continue to strengthen as its track becomes more NEly and it should cross the western El Salvador coast in 48-72 hours as a minimal hurricane. After this point, it should cross the countries of El Salvador and Honduras where mountains in this region, upward of 2850 m (9348 ft) could cause extreme flooding. It should also weaken the system to depression strength or possibly lower. Afterwards, it should emerge in the southwestern Gulf of Honduras and move NE towards Cuba. The strength of the system at this point in time depends on how much the mountains of Honduras and El Salvador weaken the system.

120 HR WIND FORECAST
INITIAL 30 KT
12 HR 35 KT
24 HR 45 KT
36 HR 55 KT
48 HR 65 KT
72 HR 35 KT
96 HR 25 KT
120 HR 30 KT

*END

[HURAKAN]

Lets ask Hurricane Mitch what are the possibilities of this cyclone to survive the crossing!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

It varies, Hurakan. Mitch was over this area for many, many days, however, it is likely that 01E will be moving much faster over this area, and perhaps spend as little as 12 hours (more likely), to a maximum of 24 (less likely) overland.

[HURAKAN]

It varies, Hurakan. Mitch was over this area for many, many days, however, it is likely that 01E will be moving much faster over this area, and perhaps spend as little as 12 hours (more likely), to a maximum of 24 (less likely) overland.

Thereafter the possibilities of the cyclone to maintain its identity after crossing the mountain are good.

[Brent]

Yep... I think it will move fairly swiftly. Will be interesting to watch.

[Anonymous]

OK--And if it remained Adrian, Would we still have an Arlene? We would have already had an 'A' storm in the atlantic if this occurred and the A storm is always the first. So do we skip Arlene then?

[Derek Ortt]

yes, we would still have arlene as this will always be an epac storm, even if it were to devastate an area in the Atlantic basin

[DoctorHurricane2003]

and to clear any other confusion, *if* (not likely to happen at all) Adrian came over AND completely devastated an area within the Atlantic, it can still be retired at the discretion of the devastated WMO-member country.