TD #01E - First Public Advisory...and Discussion

[James]

The idea of a hurricane is suddenly looking more like a possible scenario.

[Anonymous]

Is there a link to the GFDL model?

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on May 17, 2005


The tropical disturbance located southwest of Guatemala and El
Salvador has become better organized during the day. Satellite
intensity estimates of 30 kt...25 kt...and 25 kt from TAFB...SAB...
and AFWA indicate that Tropical Depression One-E has formed over
the far northeastern Pacific Ocean. In addition to satellite
data... ship pfsk located near the center reported a pressure of
1006.4 mb... along with 14 ft seas that correspond to 25-30 kt
winds. Therefore...the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.
The initial motion is 070/4. All of the global models...and the
GFDL model...indicate an atypical northeastward motion toward
Central America for the next three days. Since 1966... only four
systems have made landall in Guatemala or El Salvador in any
month... with only one landfalling depression in the month of may.
However... no tropical cyclone has made landfall this early in may.
While not climatological... all of the models agree on developing a
mid- to upper-level trough over Mexico and to the west of the
cyclone. This should produce deep layer southwesterly steering
flow over the next few days...which should move the system toward
Central America. On the forecast track... landfall could occur
along the Guatemala and El Salvador coasts in 2-3 days. If the
cyclone survives the high terrain of Central America... it could
emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by day 4. The official
forecast track is in close agreement with a consensus of the global
and GFDL models.

Atmospheric and oceanic environments are favorable for at least
steady intensification. An upper-level ridge extends from the
depression northeastward to the Caribbean Sea...which is producing
favorable outflow and weak vertical shear. The SHIPS model only
strengthens the cyclone to 55 kt in 48 hours... but this is largely
due to the unusual eastward motion which generally does not favor
intensification. In contrast... the GFDL brings the system to 115
kt in 48 hours. The official forecast is slightly higher than the
SHIPS model... and the cyclone could become a hurricane in 60 hours
before making landfall.

Forecaster Knabb/Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 9.9n 95.0w 30 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 10.2n 94.3w 35 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 10.7n 93.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 19/0600z 11.5n 92.4w 50 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 12.7n 91.2w 60 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 16.0n 87.0w 30 kt
96hr VT 21/1800z 20.0n 82.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 22/1800z 23.0n 74.0w 30 kt


$$





Umm could become a hurricane Stewart says.

[James]

Hmm, interesting. Only four since 1966? Fascinating to be able to see one in action now. I do hope it doesn't have too many bad effects though.

[HURAKAN]

What I found kind of curious is that in the discussion "forecast positions ..... " they don't put the cyclone is dissipating or remnant low. Which makes me believe that even they are not sure they can't rule out the possibility of the cyclone making it through at least as a tropical depression. COOL!

[dhweather]

Hmm, interesting. Only four since 1966? Fascinating to be able to see one in action now. I do hope it doesn't have too many bad effects though.

Well. last year was the first Hurricane to make landfall in the South
Atlantic (Brazil) - so maybe Adrian will be this years anomoly.

If that's an indicator, then 2005 will be a rough year.

[Hyperstorm]

This situation reminds me of Tropical Storm Arlene (ironically) in 1981 which developed in the NW Caribbean Sea from an area of broad low pressure which crossed over from the Eastern Pacific Ocean in May of that year.


Derecho, start preparing yourself for becoming the new President of Accuweather...

[Rainband]

[Anonymous]

What worries me is that they mention the GFDL taking it to Cat 4, but they do not DISAGREE.

[vbhoutex]

Hmmm.....Forecaster Knabb? I guess that's our new forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. I wonder what are his credentials...

I just thought that... checking it up... don't see anything about him on their site...

I'm not sure what you looked at at their site, but if he/she is the newest forecaster he/she may have moved from another division within NHC and his/her profile could be there instead of where you looked. The may not have updated the personnel site yet if that is where you looked.

[yoda]

Hmmm.....Forecaster Knabb? I guess that's our new forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. I wonder what are his credentials...

I just thought that... checking it up... don't see anything about him on their site...

I'm not sure what you looked at at their site, but if he/she is the newest forecaster he/she may have moved from another division within NHC and his/her profile could be there instead of where you looked. The may not have updated the personnel site yet if that is where you looked.

That is where I looked. No disrespect to him/her... I was just wanting to know. I assure you that IMO he/she is a great forecaster.

[vbhoutex]

Hmmm.....Forecaster Knabb? I guess that's our new forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. I wonder what are his credentials...

I just thought that... checking it up... don't see anything about him on their site...

I'm not sure what you looked at at their site, but if he/she is the newest forecaster he/she may have moved from another division within NHC and his/her profile could be there instead of where you looked. The may not have updated the personnel site yet if that is where you looked.

That is where I looked. No disrespect to him/her... I was just wanting to know. I assure you that IMO he/she is a great forecaster.

I didn't even think you were intimating anything. Not a lot of people know about the personnel portion of the site at NHC. For some reason I know that name from somewhere, but I can't figure out where. Maybe some of our more knowledgeable Mets that are more familiar with NHC can tell us something.

[James]

What worries me is that they mention the GFDL taking it to Cat 4, but they do not DISAGREE.

That's an interesting point. While I am a long way from believing what the GFDL says, it would certainly not surprise me to see the storm get stronger than is currently forecast. The waters are warm and shear is comparatively low. Whatever the case, it would seem that people in Central America should really be keeping a close eye on this one.

Of course I could be completely wrong, but they're just my thoughts.

[Anonymous]

Remember Hurricane Adolph in May 2001 was only expected to be a Cat 1, and was a strong Cat 4.

[tallywx]

Here's a feature article in the "Miami Herald" on Dr. Richard Knabb:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/11634125.htm

(alternate link in case you get a login screen:

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:7ttE ... rald&hl=en

)

P.S. Clear cookies to not get a login screen.

[x-y-no]

Here's a feature article in the "Miami Herald" on Dr. Richard Knabb:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/11634125.htm

Terrific article ... thanks for the link.

Sounds like he's out kind of guy!

Quick ... Paul ... Mike ... line him up for the show.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hell this is unusual (track wise). My area of Western New Brunswick and Eastern Maine, even as far north as it is, was more likely to have a land falling named storm than Guatemala and El Salvador since accurate records have been kept, in roughly the past 150 years. This pre-season storm is already off to one fascinating start


Hybridstorm_November2001

[dhweather]

Yep, he's one of us.