TAFB -- This is where it may cross over....

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/pac ... testBW.gif

On Friday, May 20

[dixiebreeze]

.....And head for the U.S., I might add.

[kevin]

Who says it might head to the US? ?????

[yoda]

.....And head for the U.S., I might add.

No thanks!!

[dhweather]

I just don't see it (or whatever is left over) getting to the US - it'll be a fish

[x-y-no]

.....And head for the U.S., I might add.

Quite unlikely. Should continue NE if it does hold together at all.

[Hurricanehink]

Yea, Cuba or Hispanola if anything, IMO.

[x-y-no]

I just don't see it (or whatever is left over) getting to the US - it'll be a fish

All aside from the fact that it will already have made landfall once, it's essentially impossible for any system in the Caribbean to be a "fish".

Jan

EDIT: unless it just dissipates before hitting something, of course.

[dhweather]

I shnould say that I think it will be a non-tropical or depression
at best going through the Carribean, then officially a fish.

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like the U.S. is a potential target to me:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/EP902005.png

[x-y-no]

Looks like the U.S. is a potential target to me:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/EP902005.png

Nope. Only the BAMD heads that way, and it doesn't do so well on weaker systems (hence BAM "D" for "deep") ... and if this did head across the Yucatan like that there'd be absolutely nothing left anyways.

The official track looks pretty likely. I'd bet on something just a tad more easterly than that, even.

Jan

[Anonymous]

Looks like *IF* it makes it across Central America, there would be a weak High Over Ga/Fla in 144 hrs with Adrian over Cuba. Wouldnt this block it from continueing NE and trap it for a while?

GFS
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

Nogaps-Shows high to the north with low south of cuba

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

NWS DISC....
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html

From Fla

NWS MLB

SAT-TUE...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING THE TROF IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH INDICATE A SURGE OF MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS CUBA. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD ON
SATURDAY TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING THEM MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS LONG RANGE NUMBERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY...KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA HOWEVER...
PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA.
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI/MOSES


NWS TAMPA

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING
WEST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT SEAS AND
A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAY SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT A BIT...BUT AT THIS TIME
NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TERM...JCM
LONG TERM....BSG

[dixiebreeze]

Really anyone's guess at this point -- if it clears the high terrain of C.A. Way too far out to get specific.

[dhweather]

It's just not much of a ridge, particularly with a strong SW flow.

[x-y-no]

It's just not much of a ridge, particularly with a strong SW flow.

Agreed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

HEheheh yets get this show on the road!!!

[Weatherboy1]

Very early in the season (or before it, in this case!), and very late in the season, anything that does form in the Caribbean (or threatens too), gets ejected off to the NE or ENE. Think of Lenny in 1999, or Michelle in 2001. The mean steering winds at this time of year are usually out of the SW ... and even if something does form, if it tries to get farther N, it gets sheared apart. Again, think back to Michelle. If I remember correctly, it was a November cane that got all the way up to Cat 3 status as it hit Cuba ... but once it got 100-200 miles to the N and NE, it got ripped apart by shear and faded completely after being ejected NE over the Bahamas.

[MGC]

If it holds together crossingover then Cuba looks to be most at risk.....MGC

[Rainband]

I agree and the bahamas down the line

[cycloneye]