Will TD1-E form into Tropical Storm Adrian or not?

[cycloneye]

I say yes it will be Adrian due to it's impressive organization.What do you think?

[krysof]

it looks much more organized than a lot of systems in the past that were tropical storms

[Rainband]

in the past few hours it has really gotten it's act together. I wouldn't be surprised if it got better organized fairly quick.

[dixiebreeze]

No doubt.

[dhweather]

It'll be Adrian in no more than 36 hours.

The environment has improved significantly in the last 12-24 hours

[James]

It looks well on the way to being Adrian already.

[x-y-no]

Given its environment, I don't see what would stop it.

[James]

How strong do you guys foresee this system getting?

[Rainband]

Will something from the Epac system survive and redevelop in the Caribbean??? The gfs has a low forming. I guess time will tell. Poor Luis. may be a lot more rain for you on the way.


000
FXUS62 KTBW 171731
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2005

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THU)...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS SERIES OF VORT LOBES WITHIN THE 50H FLOW ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODERATE INSTABILITY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL SUPPORT LOW END SCATTERED (30-40%) RANGE
DIURNAL POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW
FAVORING GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SETTING UP OVER COASTAL
LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

AFTER THE CONVECTION WINDS DOWN TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM THE RAIN MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG...
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER MY NORTHERN MOST ZONES...SO WILL
DEPICT PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM HERNANDO-SUMTER NORTH MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDING DATA INDICATES COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS (~ -10C AT 500MB)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE COOL TEMPS COMBINED WITH GOOD SURFACE
HEATING WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WINDS. NAM POPS LOOK A BIT HIGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND MAY BE OVERPLAYING MOISTURE RETURN AND VORT ENERGY ALOFT...
SO WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE MAV.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO-VALUES WITH
READINGS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON...EXCEPT COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. MAV/MET
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...SO WILL USE A BLEND.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT - TUE)...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE BIG TIME
IN THE EXTENDE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. NAM IS LOCKING
IN ON A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DROPPING POLAR-BASED TROUGH SE
FROM CANADA DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LINKING IT WITH
REMNANT VORTEX OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT LEAST TWO OTHER MODELS...THE
JUST ARRIVED GFS AND NOGAPS...TAKE THE SAME SYSTEM DUE SOUTH AND
BRING IT TO THE E TX COAST BEFORE SLOWLY OPENING IT UP BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A
SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MONITOR. SHOULD IT
DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR EAST.

SO...WHICH TO CHOOSE? THE NAM DEVELOPS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SFC LOW
WHICH DIVES INTO THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA BEFORE PERHAPS REDEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HINTED AT BY
THE 06Z DGEX EXTENSION (00Z SAT). THIS WOULD PLACE CWA IN A SW FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND...COMPLETELY OPPOSITE OF OUR CURRENT FCST AND
GFS/NOGAPS (FOR TWO) TRENDS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ONTO THE GENERAL
ENE FLOW THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...BUT NOTE THAT THIS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[soonertwister]

Check out where GFDL takes this storm at +54 hours!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Rainband]

Interesting

[x-y-no]

Check out where GFDL takes this storm at +54 hours!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Holy moly ... I think that may be more than a little overblown (pun intended).

Jan

EDIT: ... and looking forward to 108 hours, it has it crossing central Cuba into the Bahamas as a Cat 1.

I think the GFDL may be just a little bit out to lunch here ...

[Rainband]

Yeah it bombs it before landfall at Cat 4

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FOR SURE, THE POSSIBILITY OF IT BECOMING A HURRICANE ARE NOT VERY GOOD BUT NOT ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.

[dhweather]

126 kts at landfall?

I see they didn't tweak the GFDL during the off season.

[RevDodd]

Gotta love that GFDL...gets the ol' heart pumping better than cardio!

[soonertwister]

I think it's been stated on this forum on many occasions that GFDL tends to do wild things with storms earlier in their developmental stages. That sure looks like the case here.

[chadtm80]

I agree with the majority here.. I dont see anything that would stop it in the short term.. Dont be surprised if TS tommorow morning

[dhweather]

Hey, what would happen if it went through the Panama Canal?


(this is a joke, only a joke)