West GOM will be busy

[corpusbreeze]

this year. First off the western to upper GOM would have been a lot more active if not for the saving grace of some out of charector weather patterns. The biggest being the almost unheard of strong front in August. If not for this freakish front Charley would have ventured west into the west GOM. I dont know what was the cause of these series of strong fronts in late summer, but the effect was a slow and uneventful cane season for Texas and the surrounding areas. With the NHC predicting a busy season, and water temps above normal for this time of the year already, people on the west GOM should not be complacint becuase of seasons like last year. Odds are the we wont be getting any fall weather again in the middle of August.

[Rainband]

Many factors played a part in the events of 2004. Be prepared from Maine to Texas this year. Thats the best advice.

[gatorcane]

yes, last year was perfect for FL getting hit....the bermuda high was strong but the fronts were also strong...if the fronts aren't as strong as some are predicting and even with a moderate Bermuda high we could see the Western Gulf getting some action

[mobilebay]

I agree this area could be the target for a Major this season. I don't have any proof, or data to back it up, just a feeling.

[KatDaddy]

The WGOM was very quiet last year and that was fine by me. Previous years brought some scares to the Upper TX Coast such as Claudette, Fay, Lili and Isidore. We dodged the built again and again. I truely hope all you Floridians are spared any major storms this season.

[Rainband]

Me too Kat Daddy. I will be perfectly happy watching the action from a far this season

[LaBreeze]

True about all of those unseasonable fronts we experienced last hurricane season. I actually felt guilty that we were experiencing such beautiful weather while our friends and neighbors to the east were facing such devastation.

[dhweather]

Of course, New Orleans is past due for a direct hit - maybe this year is it.

[Agua]

Texas may be due. Check out this graphic I ripped from Cycloneye's post in the NOAA 2005 outlook thread. It doesn't appear that TX gets very many majors, in general, whether the season be deemed "above" or "below" "normal".:



I was very surprised that it doesn't appear that the upper TX coast has had any majors during the time periods presented in the graphic. Odd, huh?

[Edited to include the following:] The more I look at that, the more puzzling it seems. NO majors?!?? In fact, for the amount of coastline TX has, the entire state doesn't seem to be visited that frequently on a "storm per mile" basis. Odd.

[southerngale]

Texas may be due. Check out this graphic I ripped from Cycloneye's post in the NOAA 2005 outlook thread. It doesn't appear that TX gets very many majors, in general, whether the season be deemed "above" or "below" "normal".:



I was very surprised that it doesn't appear that the upper TX coast has had any majors during the time periods presented in the graphic. Odd, huh?

[Edited to include the following:] The more I look at that, the more puzzling it seems. NO majors?!?? In fact, for the amount of coastline TX has, the entire state doesn't seem to be visited that frequently on a "storm per mile" basis. Odd.

Being on the Upper Texas coast, I'm glad we haven't experienced a major. The last hurricane that hit here directly was Bonnie in 1986. It was a strong Cat.1 (some here argued there were weak Cat.2 sustained winds though) and she reeked enough havoc here. While it was nothing compared to the damage from the hurricanes last year, it was enough to give a glimpse of what a major would do.
I've seen the simulations of the storm surge from a cat. 5 hitting here and it was very ugly.

We did get Allison after that, but she was "just" a tropical storm. Major flooding with Allison, but of course, no wind damage.

[BayouVenteux]

I was very surprised that it doesn't appear that the upper TX coast has had any majors during the time periods presented in the graphic. Odd, huh?

[Edited to include the following:] The more I look at that, the more puzzling it seems. NO majors?!?? In fact, for the amount of coastline TX has, the entire state doesn't seem to be visited that frequently on a "storm per mile" basis. Odd.

It is odd Agua, and the fact that the graphic only covers a 47-year span (a blink, historically speaking) serves to further emphasize that fact. Looking back at historical records from 1850-1950, there are a number of landfalling Texas storms that from the anecdotal evidence and ship logs, appear to have been at least category 3 storms.

[Agua]

Compare TX to the Afachalaya to Destin area. Maybe I ought to move to upper TX.

[GulfBreezer]

I truely hope all you Floridians are spared any major storms this season.

FROM YOUR MOUTH TO GOD'S EARS KAT!!!!!

[dhweather]

Compare TX to the Afachalaya to Destin area. Maybe I ought to move to upper TX.

It does seem that the mouth of the Mississippi is a magnet for them, eh?

[Agua]

Yeah. Just look at that. "Above normal" / "below normal" ... Same thing. Looks to be more than any other area than the outer banks.

[dhweather]

It'll give us something to do this year. ha ha ha