What I heard on Fox News

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LarryWx
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#21 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 17, 2005 11:33 am

BayouVenteux wrote:
chadtm80 wrote:While it is the correct answer.. Its not the JB answer.. Im with Jan.. This is definatly out of character for him


He probably hasn't issued his zone-by-zone specific landfall intensity forecast numbers yet. Those usually indicate the specific areas Bastardi's targeting in greater detail. If I recall, he posts those toward the end of May/beginning of June, with an update around the end of July/beginning of August.


You are correct. Regardless of what he'll do later, he did make that silly Brownsville to Hatteras highest threat prediction today (and he was being serious) while at the same time bashing the NWS for what he considered a nonprediction. He sounded so hypocritical and "holier than thou" to me.
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#22 Postby chadtm80 » Tue May 17, 2005 11:34 am

LarryWx wrote:
BayouVenteux wrote:
chadtm80 wrote:While it is the correct answer.. Its not the JB answer.. Im with Jan.. This is definatly out of character for him


He probably hasn't issued his zone-by-zone specific landfall intensity forecast numbers yet. Those usually indicate the specific areas Bastardi's targeting in greater detail. If I recall, he posts those toward the end of May/beginning of June, with an update around the end of July/beginning of August.


You are correct. Regardless of what he'll do later, he did make that silly Brownsville to Hatteras highest threat prediction today (and he was being serious) while at the same time bashing the NWS for what he considered a nonprediction. He sounded so hypocritical and "holier than thou" to me.

I sent him an Email pointing out the hypcracy ;-)
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#23 Postby Brett Adair » Tue May 17, 2005 11:42 am

I have to admit that I did enjoy watching JB's updates, but I do believe that was a little ridiculous. I could actually care less though, because I am in with the AccuWeather boycott like the other half of the country. :lol:
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#24 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 17, 2005 11:51 am

southerngale wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:I have give JB credit, last season his #1 area was Western Florida. Personally, I enjoy JB's forecasts, and I don't really have anything against him.


Yes, he obviously did very well in western FL. But, his #2 area was TX, which got hit only by the reborn weak Ivan. TX was a huge bust.


Sure, because his #1 area got them all!


His #1 area (west FL peninsula) got only one direct hurricane hit from the water (Charley). In addition to blowing TX, he also did quite poorly in the actual #1 hardest hit area (per his own scale), SE FL. He had predicted SE FL to be only the 7th worst hit out of the 10 areas with only an average year. Also, he had NE FL/GA as his least affected area of the 10 areas. It ended up being 4th. That's not so great.
Whereas I consider his overall very hard US hit prediction to have been excellent, I consider his zone results to have been mediocre.
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#25 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 17, 2005 11:56 am

chadtm80 wrote:I sent him an Email pointing out the hypcracy ;-)


Good luck Chad on getting a decent email response back from him!
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#26 Postby southerngale » Tue May 17, 2005 12:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:
southerngale wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:I have give JB credit, last season his #1 area was Western Florida. Personally, I enjoy JB's forecasts, and I don't really have anything against him.


Yes, he obviously did very well in western FL. But, his #2 area was TX, which got hit only by the reborn weak Ivan. TX was a huge bust.


Sure, because his #1 area got them all!


His #1 area (west FL peninsula) got only one direct hurricane hit from the water (Charley). In addition to blowing TX, he also did quite poorly in the actual #1 hardest hit area (per his own scale), SE FL. He had predicted SE FL to be only the 7th worst hit out of the 10 areas with only an average year. Also, he had NE FL/GA as his least affected area of the 10 areas. It ended up being 4th. That's not so great.
Whereas I consider his overall very hard US hit prediction to have been excellent, I consider his zone results to have been mediocre.


I was exaggerating because Florida took so many hits.
But, even though Ivan didn't make a direct landfall in western Florida, I wouldn't call that a bust. It certainly did enough damage there.
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#27 Postby CentralFlGal » Tue May 17, 2005 12:02 pm

southerngale wrote:
LarryWx wrote: Yes, he obviously did very well in western FL. But, his #2 area was TX, which got hit only by the reborn weak Ivan. TX was a huge bust.


Sure, because his #1 area got them all!


Florida realizes we were hogging all the action last year, and we'll try our best not to do the same this year.

I suppose hoping for a quiet, lazy season is out of the question at this point? ::glances at the caribbean::
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#28 Postby vbhoutex » Tue May 17, 2005 12:03 pm

LarryWx wrote:
chadtm80 wrote:I sent him an Email pointing out the hypcracy ;-)


Good luck Chad on getting a decent email response back from him!


In the past I have never had a problem getting a decent email response back from him. I may not agree with what he responds with, but I normally get a response. I must admit though that it has been a while since I emailed him.
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#29 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 17, 2005 12:13 pm

southerngale wrote:I was exaggerating because Florida took so many hits.
But, even though Ivan didn't make a direct landfall in western Florida, I wouldn't call that a bust. It certainly did enough damage there.


He has a separate zone for the FL panhandle westward to Miss. (I'll call it central Gulf coast) Ivan made a direct hit in that zone, which isn't the western FL peninsula zone. He did very well in that central Gulf Coast zone since he called for it to be hit the fourth hardest and it was actually hit third hardest. He also did very well in LA, which he had as one of his least hit areas.

Here's my take: he was excellent from SW FL to the LA/TX border. He was lousy for TX and SE FL, and pretty bad for the NE FL/GA zone. He did OK to good from SC to SE Canada. Overall, not bad and not good...mediocre to me.
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#30 Postby LarryWx » Tue May 17, 2005 12:20 pm

vbhoutex wrote:In the past I have never had a problem getting a decent email response back from him. I may not agree with what he responds with, but I normally get a response. I must admit though that it has been a while since I emailed him.


The key though imo is whether or not he gets a "decent" reply, not whether or not he gets one at all. He has usually responded to me too although often with a very short reply that doesn't necessarily address the issue fully. Maybe he reads this BB and will now reply thoroughly due to the pressure. ;)
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#31 Postby southerngale » Tue May 17, 2005 12:24 pm

Ok, my bad. I don't really follow his zone forecasts anyway. I was just trying to make a comment about how bad Florida got it, somewhat joking that was why his #2, #3, etc. areas didn't do well.

Let's hope Florida is spared from devastation this year. (and everyone, for that matter)
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#32 Postby cyclonaut » Tue May 17, 2005 1:39 pm

Its been a while since i have visited Accuweather.com,its been a while since I have e-mailed JB & it will be a while..Between myself, storm2k,NHC & a few others I am just fine.
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#33 Postby Anonymous » Tue May 17, 2005 2:54 pm

That is exactly what JB said and the graphic confirms that really meant to be very vague this year apparently. He used to have a point system where he gave all areas a certain number of points and if a cane struck an area with lots of points, he got the points. Looks like he went to a broad forecast so he has a better chance of being right and not losing what little fans he has left for when he's wrong.

Note on the image, I re-uploaded it to the web incase the accuwx link becomes invalid

From Accuweather/JoeBastardi--exact words...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-story. ... &article=3

AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has issued his forecest for the 2005 hurricane season. It calls for 13 named storms with 5 making landfall. Of these 5 making landfall, 3 are expected to be hurricanes with at least 1 classified as a major hurricane (category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson scale). Damage is expected to be in the $5-10 billion range. The greatest risk for landfall appears to be along the Gulf Coast and Southeast coast with lesser risk foreseen along the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.


Image
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#34 Postby dhweather » Tue May 17, 2005 2:58 pm

Well, Accuweather and other weather "value added" companies are
pushing legislation to cut out free access to the NOAA/NWS data.

They want us to pay for what our tax dollars pay NOAA to do.
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#35 Postby SkeetoBite » Tue May 17, 2005 3:54 pm

I'm a huge fan of NOAA and the NHC. This is my only source for raw data in the map project and in all new projects moving forward. This site (storm2k) and one other are my sole source for commentary on tropical activity.

When building our maps last year we found that the NHC was pretty much dead on 72 hours out. Someone will say "yeah, but what about Charley turning in sooner" and I have to say that Punta Gorda was well within the "cone of uncertainty".

AccuWeather could take a lesson from the Ivan forecasts by NHC. While Bastardi was actually bashing the NHC on live TV and raising hell about Ivan "tearing up the backbone of Florida", the NHC gave a 72 forecast indicating Ivan would pass west of Cuba and the Keys and they were accurate to within 60 miles three days later. That's just incredible.

Maybe this year we will plot the forecasts of NHC and AccuWeather on the same maps and then overlay the actual paths afterwards to see who is more accurate.

A quick side note, Joe Bastardi is a brilliant guy. As a pay service, these folks know that they NEED to be right when the NHC is wrong and they need to drive the point home to justify the expense to their subscribers and advertisers. This explains the passion in a forecast that differs greatly from the NHC. Of greater concern is that the NHC is the official weather source and that varying/conflicted forecasts can cause confusion, cost lives and result in loss of property due to lack of action.

I do not support boycotting a business for doing what businesses do. I do, however, support removing elected officials from office that bend to the influence of corporate interests.

P.S. That’s a funny typo in their map :-)
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#36 Postby GalvestonDuck » Tue May 17, 2005 3:56 pm

SkeetoBite wrote:
P.S. That’s a funny typo in their map :-)


I like your maps WAY better! Hope we get to see more of them this year. :)
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#37 Postby dhweather » Tue May 17, 2005 3:58 pm

Skeetobite makes great graphics - I used them a lot last year!!
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#38 Postby vbhoutex » Tue May 17, 2005 3:59 pm

Great proffing before they publish!!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

Speaking of!!!LOLOL!!!!!!! :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Last edited by vbhoutex on Tue May 17, 2005 5:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#39 Postby dhweather » Tue May 17, 2005 4:00 pm

They wanted to accenuate the R sound. :D
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#40 Postby SkeetoBite » Tue May 17, 2005 4:24 pm

GalvestonDuck wrote:
SkeetoBite wrote:
P.S. That’s a funny typo in their map :-)


I like your maps WAY better! Hope we get to see more of them this year. :)


Thanks for your kind comments. You will indeed see more maps this season and much more cool stuff too.
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