What I heard on Fox News

CYCLONE MIKE · #1 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:13 am

Last night while I was getting ready for bed, my wife was watching Greta on Fox News. The last 3 minutes of her show she did a little report about the upcoming hurricane season and her guest via phone was none other than Joe Bastardi from Accuweather. She asked him how many majors he thought we could see this year and he said 3-5. Then she asked if there was one area of higher risk seeing a major landfall over other coastal areas. He said the area of greatest risk appears to be from Cape Hatteras to Brownsville. Now I would expect that answer from someone that just moved down from Montana or somewhere that has no knowledge of hurricanes but from someone that you have to pay and subscribe to get professional information is just ridiculous. Kids in elementary schools here in louisiana can give us more and better info than that. I do not like to write posts and bash people but this I could not let go.

x-y-no · #2 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:18 am

Yeah ... I heard that too, and wondered if he didn't misspeak. Probably he meant to name two areas, the Hatteras area nad the Texas coast.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:18 am

why it's true. there is no way to predict what areas will be hit.

x-y-no · #4 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:22 am

Rainband wrote:why it's true. there is no way to predict what areas will be hit.

But JB does try to predict seasonal landfalls far more finely than that. So unless he was joking (and it didn't sound like he was) he couldn't really have meant what he said.

KatDaddy · #5 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:29 am

Even though I am down on Accu-Weather I still can appreciate Joe B's forecast and energy/drive when it comes to the hurricane season. It will be of interest to see how his forecast chimes in with all the other forecasts.

#6 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:37 am

x-y-no wrote:Yeah ... I heard that too, and wondered if he didn't misspeak. Probably he meant to name two areas, the Hatteras area nad the Texas coast.

No, Bastardi didn't misspeak, I have it from reliable sources (as I am boycotting the Accuweather subscription service) that he stated the same thing in his online content.

I can't believe JB doesn't foresee a coast-hugging Hurricane Carol 1954 redux in New England this year...like every year. :lol:

j/k...I actually enjoy him a lot and have learned much regarding the tropics, and weather in general, from his columns and videos over the last several years. If he were in business for anyone other than his current employer/business partners, I'd gladly subscribe to him.

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:38 am

I have give JB credit, last season his #1 area was Western Florida. Personally, I enjoy JB's forecasts, and I don't really have anything against him.

#8 Postby **dhweather** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:50 am

We'll all see how it plays out in the next six months.

TexasStooge · #9 Postby **TexasStooge** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:53 am

Heard that story yesterday as well.

I'm not surprised however, considering the lack thereof Hurricane Season in the GOM. Last season, Florida got hit by one hurricane after another.

#10 Postby **Cookiely** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:55 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Last night while I was getting ready for bed, my wife was watching Greta on Fox News. The last 3 minutes of her show she did a little report about the upcoming hurricane season and her guest via phone was none other than Joe Bastardi from Accuweather. She asked him how many majors he thought we could see this year and he said 3-5. Then she asked if there was one area of higher risk seeing a major landfall over other coastal areas. He said the area of greatest risk appears to be from Cape Hatteras to Brownsville. Now I would expect that answer from someone that just moved down from Montana or somewhere that has no knowledge of hurricanes but from someone that you have to pay and subscribe to get professional information is just ridiculous. Kids in elementary schools here in louisiana can give us more and better info than that. I do not like to write posts and bash people but this I could not let go.

The information he gave is for non-paying persons. I'm sure he will give more detailed info for those who subscribe.

x-y-no · #11 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:56 am

BayouVenteux wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Yeah ... I heard that too, and wondered if he didn't misspeak. Probably he meant to name two areas, the Hatteras area nad the Texas coast.

No, Bastardi didn't misspeak, I have it from reliable sources (as I am boycotting the Accuweather subscription service) that he stated the same thing in his online content.

Strange. It's been about a year and a half since I dropped my subscription to Accuweather Pro, but at least at that time he made a big deal about his landfall forecast, which went into considerable detail breaking down the coast into a dozen or more segments and giving point totals to each. So just saying "Hatteras to Brownsville" seems pretty weird to me. Yeah, it's an accurate statement, but so broad as to be completely meaningless, and JB has some pride in his efforts to improve skill at landfall forecasts.

Jan

Agua · #12 Postby **Agua** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:58 am

He hasn't released his regionall landfall predictions yet. Those will be in early June, according to the AcWx site.

chadtm80 · #13 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue May 17, 2005 11:08 am

While it is the correct answer.. Its not the JB answer.. Im with Jan.. This is definatly out of character for him

#14 Postby **LarryWx** » Tue May 17, 2005 11:10 am

He wasn't joking at all. Today, he said with a totally straight face that the "greatest threat" right now is from Cape Hatteras, NC, to Brownsville, TX, which covers well over 2,000 miles and is where the vast majority of hurricanes have hit the US!

If he wants to make a silly nonprediction like that, that's his choice. But he's such a hypocrite imo. Why do I say this? He also said today that he was ticked at the NHC. He absolutely hammered the NWS for its forecast of 12-15 storms this hurricane season, implying that it is basically a nonprediction since it is a range instead of one number and saying that "you're liable to be right on one of those numbers".

So, who is really making less of a prediction here? What a hypocrite! As long as he chooses to openly criticize others, I'll be more than happy to criticize him when I sense hypocrisy. If he dishes it out, he's going to have to take it.

#15 Postby **LarryWx** » Tue May 17, 2005 11:17 am

[quote="BayouVenteux j/k...I actually enjoy him a lot and have learned much regarding the tropics, and weather in general, from his columns and videos over the last several years. If he were in business for anyone other than his current employer/business partners, I'd gladly subscribe to him.[/quote]

Keep in mind that he is as guilty as anyone at his co. of constantly hammering away at the NHC and other NWS organizations. He said just today that he was ticked at the NHC. He absolutely hammered the NWS for its forecast of 12-15 storms this hurricane season. He also said just today that "demagoguery" is coming out of the Natl.
Hurricane Center.

chadtm80 · #16 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue May 17, 2005 11:17 am

Its Jealousy Larry ;-)

#17 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Tue May 17, 2005 11:23 am

chadtm80 wrote:While it is the correct answer.. Its not the JB answer.. Im with Jan.. This is definatly out of character for him

He probably hasn't issued his zone-by-zone specific landfall intensity forecast numbers yet. Those usually indicate the specific areas Bastardi's targeting in greater detail. If I recall, he posts those toward the end of May/beginning of June, with an update around the end of July/beginning of August.

#18 Postby **LarryWx** » Tue May 17, 2005 11:27 am

~Floydbuster wrote:I have give JB credit, last season his #1 area was Western Florida. Personally, I enjoy JB's forecasts, and I don't really have anything against him.

Yes, he obviously did very well in western FL. But, his #2 area was TX, which got hit only by the reborn weak Ivan. TX was a huge bust.

southerngale · #19 Postby **southerngale** » Tue May 17, 2005 11:29 am

LarryWx wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:I have give JB credit, last season his #1 area was Western Florida. Personally, I enjoy JB's forecasts, and I don't really have anything against him.

Yes, he obviously did very well in western FL. But, his #2 area was TX, which got hit only by the reborn weak Ivan. TX was a huge bust.

Sure, because his #1 area got them all!

chadtm80 · #20 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue May 17, 2005 11:30 am

If he wants to make a silly nonprediction like that, that's his choice. But he's such a hypocrite imo. Why do I say this? He also said today that he was ticked at the NHC. He absolutely hammered the NWS for its forecast of 12-15 storms this hurricane season, implying that it is basically a nonprediction since it is a range instead of one number and saying that "you're liable to be right on one of those numbers".

The NOAA releases there number for one reason.. To just prepare the nation of whats to come.. They are not looking to get an exact number.. What good is that? JB is just wanting to "guess" the magic number.. Thats not what its all about. Ill take NOAA over JB anyday.. JMHO

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