First invest for EPAC

[x-y-no]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005051700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

CMC (Canadien) model shows at 00z the crossover to the Caribbean and does increase some the strengh after the CentralAmerica crossover.GFS shows the same but a more weak system.

Interesting ...

Kind of hard to believe there'd be much left of the structure after crossing there ... but OTOH, as I pointed out yesterday, overall conditions in the central Carribean look favorable for development this weekend, so it is the area to watch regardless.

Jan

[x-y-no]

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...


SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 43KTS 31KTS
DSHP 44KTS 32KTS 30KTS 23KTS

.

Wow ... SHIP model is getting more and more enthusiastic ... looks like that's predicated on somewhat slower movement than yesterday's runs suggested ...


And I think DSHP didn't take it over 39 knots yesterday.

Jan

[chadtm80]

I was just getting ready to comment on that Jan.. Impressive

[x-y-no]

There's good convection flaring up over the center again this morning. We'll see if it's sustained this time ... the system can't really intensify as long as it's pulsing like it has been.

Jan

[chadtm80]

P.S. This storm is being featured on http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[P.K.]

There appears to be a tropical cyclone formation alert on the NRL page, however it must have just appeared as clicking on the image doesn't bring anything up. However even though it is small it appears the time on it is 2pm GMT (Which is 20 minutes away )

Edit - 17/1145 UTC 9.3N 96.1W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 171351Z MAY 05//
WTPN21 PGTW 171400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N6 95.6W0 TO 11.3N5 93.9W1
WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 171200Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N6 95.4W8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.

[chadtm80]

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

[cycloneye]

East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171608
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[MGC]

90E is well on its way to becoming the first TD of the EPAC season. I expect an upgrade as early as later today and certainly by tomorrow. Conditions appear favorable for this system to gain TS intensity.....MGC

[cycloneye]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.05.2005



TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.4N 95.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 17.05.2005 10.4N 95.3W WEAK

00UTC 18.05.2005 10.2N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.05.2005 11.2N 93.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.05.2005 12.1N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.05.2005 12.7N 93.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.05.2005 12.1N 92.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.05.2005 12.8N 90.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.05.2005 13.3N 89.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 21.05.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

Above is the 12 UTC run of UKMET Model.This model shows the TD or TS Adrian not crossing into the Caribbean as a cyclone.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1006 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N 95.5W OR ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AT 17/1200 MOVING SLOWLY NE.
CONVECTION HAS GROWN NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING BECOMING MORE
APPARENT. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
UPPER WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH EVIDENCE
OF HIGH CLOUDS FANNING OUT ON THE WESTERN SIDE WITH A DIVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE NE AS IT IS CAUGHT UP IN SW FLOW THRU A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE EPAC. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.

The above is the discussion this afternoon from TPC.

[cycloneye]

17/1745 UTC 9.6N 95.6W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean


Improving on sat estimates now at 1.5.If you ask me I say it is already a Tropical Depression as it shows all the caracteristics of being one such as curving bands,deep convection and good outflow.