First invest for EPAC

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #41 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue May 17, 2005 12:35 am

Kevin_Cho wrote:where do you guys get these projections btw?l

They are derived from computer models that ingest satellite data, surface observations, water temperatures, upper-air soundings, and more and compare it to a set of mathematical equations. Some models, however, compare systems against historical tracks. Remember that the accuracy toward the end of the model plot lowers as more unknown factors are added to the equations. These models are really just for an educated guess.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #42 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:12 am

We now have a LLC.

Quickscats show it even so it only catchings the eastern side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_0.html

yoda · #43 Postby **yoda** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:17 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:We now have a LLC.

Quickscats show it even so it only catchings the eastern side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_0.html

Wha? English please. I don't understand. How can you be so sure of a LLC when it only catches the eastern side?

mobilebay · #44 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:17 am

However, you can't close it completely off. You need a Qickscat of the entire low to do that.

mobilebay · #45 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:18 am

However, you can't close it completely off. You need a Qickscat of the entire low to do that. Sorry about the double post, I had too much coffee! :eek:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #46 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:43 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:We now have a LLC.

Quickscats show it even so it only catchings the eastern side.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_0.html

No.

It's a trough.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #47 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:52 am

Can you please show me where you get your data? Because in the latest Eastern Pacific discussion the nhc says there is a broad LLC at the surface.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #48 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:54 am

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1006 MB IS LOCATED 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BORDER NEAR 9.5N 96.5W. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTED A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM W
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

mobilebay · #49 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:54 am

I agree with you Matt. That looks like the Eastern side of a broad area of low pressure. I have NEVER seen a trough look like that, Ever. :roll:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #50 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:58 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Can you please show me where you get your data? Because in the latest Eastern Pacific discussion the nhc says there is a broad LLC at the surface.

First, you'll have to forgive me for my mind isn't all here tonight. I wish thinking about that blob of convection near Puerto Rico. I was not thinking about 90E. You're right, there is a very broad area of circulation in the lower levels.

yoda · #51 Postby **yoda** » Tue May 17, 2005 3:58 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1006 MB IS LOCATED 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BORDER NEAR 9.5N 96.5W. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTED A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM W
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Just because there is a broad LLC doesn't mean that a tropical system will form... :wink:

As it says.. the last line is important...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #52 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue May 17, 2005 4:00 am

Yes, one thing to remember is that although there is a possibility of this system to form in a depression or a weak storm, a lot of talk is going around about an Atlantic system. Somebody care to pull up the stats on the frequency of EPAC to ATL crossovers that are successful. Remember, a weak cyclone crossing voer the mountains of southern Mexico/Central America will strongly weaken, if not kill, a tropical cyclone. Redevelopment would be very low in the Atlantic basin.

mobilebay · #53 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue May 17, 2005 4:01 am

yoda wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1006 MB IS LOCATED 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BORDER NEAR 9.5N 96.5W. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTED A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM W
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NE
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Just because there is a broad LLC doesn't mean that a tropical system will form...

As it says.. the last line is important...

I agree 100%

yoda · #54 Postby **yoda** » Tue May 17, 2005 4:03 am

senorpepr wrote:Yes, one thing to remember is that although there is a possibility of this system to form in a depression or a weak storm, a lot of talk is going around about an Atlantic system. Somebody care to pull up the stats on the frequency of EPAC to ATL crossovers that are successful. Remember, a weak cyclone crossing voer the mountains of southern Mexico/Central America will strongly weaken, if not kill, a tropical cyclone. Redevelopment would be very low in the Atlantic basin.

Right senorpepr. While I don't know that stats, I would profess the number to be low. Also, remember the mountains tear tropical systems apart...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #55 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue May 17, 2005 4:07 am

There has been a few cross overs.

mobilebay · #56 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue May 17, 2005 4:11 am

There have been a few cross overs, but not in May. Development chances ANYWHERE in the Atlantic Basin in May is real low. Then when you consider the path of this system, it is extremely unlikely. However, if it did it would be one for the record books.

#57 Postby **P.K.** » Tue May 17, 2005 4:41 am

17/0545 UTC 9.0N 96.5W TOO WEAK 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

The latest Met Office model run:

870

WTNT80 EGRR 170551

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.05.2005

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.7N 96.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.05.2005 8.7N 96.0W WEAK

12UTC 17.05.2005 9.3N 95.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.05.2005 10.2N 94.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.05.2005 10.7N 93.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.05.2005 11.5N 93.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.05.2005 12.1N 93.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.05.2005 12.3N 92.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.05.2005 12.7N 90.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.05.2005 13.3N 89.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 21.05.2005 13.4N 88.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 22.05.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170551

#58 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 6:23 am

ABPZ20 KNHC 171025
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

This is the Morning Tropical Weather Outlook for the EPAC disturbance.

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:01 am

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

CMC (Canadien) model shows at 00z the crossover to the Caribbean and does increase some the strengh after the CentralAmerica crossover.GFS shows the same but a more weak system.

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:06 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050517 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050517 1200 050518 0000 050518 1200 050519 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.7N 95.4W 10.5N 94.6W 11.5N 94.5W 12.6N 94.4W
BAMM 9.7N 95.4W 10.5N 94.9W 11.2N 94.5W 11.9N 94.1W
LBAR 9.7N 95.4W 10.6N 94.5W 11.8N 94.0W 13.4N 93.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050519 1200 050520 1200 050521 1200 050522 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 94.2W 16.7N 92.2W 21.0N 88.4W 26.3N 83.8W
BAMM 12.8N 93.4W 15.3N 89.6W 19.4N 85.2W 22.7N 80.7W
LBAR 14.9N 93.8W 17.6N 92.8W 19.7N 88.5W 23.1N 81.1W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 43KTS 31KTS
DSHP 44KTS 32KTS 30KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 95.4W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 96.2W DIRM12 = 83DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 9.4N LONM24 = 96.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 12:00 UTC Model Guidance suite.

First invest for EPAC

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