Thoughts on Governor's Hurricane Conference...

[Anonymous]

This past week, I traveled to Tampa, Florida for the 2005 Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference. I arrived on Tuesday night, and left Friday evening. During that time, I met with great friends who have been my friends for nearly a year, yet this was the first time we met in person. I had an excellent time and had some great discussion, pictures, and audio.

The feeling I got from the conference, and the way Stacy Stewart and Dr. Gray, as well as Max Mayfield were talking...Hurricane Season 2005 may be a nasty one....even a potential carbon copy of 2004. By that, I don't mean four hurricanes for Florida, however, keep in mind how much worse 2004 could have been..

Earl-Cat 3/4/5 (DID NOT OCCUR)
Frances-Cat 3/4/5 (DID NOT OCCUR)

2004 could have had seven hurricane landfalls...and five major hurricane landfall. As luck would have it, Earl faded, and Frances weakened. However, if three majors hit the USA in 2004 (almost was four majors)...what is to say that 2-3 majors won't hit in 2005? We will see, but the Atlantic is very much like 2004 right now, and these conditions appear to be expected:

~Weak El Nino, Neutral, or weak La Nina...overall neutral, like 2004
~Warmer SST's than 2004..so SST's are even more favorable than 2004

Now, personally, my thoughts of 14/8/5 are staying for now, although I would not be surprised to see 15-17 named storms. As for the ridge, I think we will see a setup similar to 2004, with a pattern flip come July/August. Of course, this is all in my opinion, and we will see what Dr. Gray says comes May 31, 2005.

The feeling at the conference was one of...WOW...what a season 2004 was. However, another feeling I got was that 2005 may be just as bad...if not worse that 2004. And by worse...I don't mean five Hurricanes into Florida. Worse could be one Cat 5 into Miami, or one Cat 5 into Brownsville. Be Alert, and stay prepared.

[Javlin]

I have to agree Floyd the dynamics for the upcoming season to be rough are setting themselves in place.People just need to be on guard and prepared.

[Stormtrack03]

I suggest next time you attend the South Carolina Govenor's conference .

[LaPlaceFF]

I suggest next time you attend the South Carolina Govenor's conference .

Does anyone know if that states affected by hurricanes have conferences like this.

[chadtm80]

As far as I know LaPlaceFF, LA does

[LAwxrgal]

I thought I heard something or other on the news about Louisiana's hurricane conference. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. I think that's where they tried to hash out a new evac plan.

[Anonymous]

There is the National Hurricane Conference which was in New Orleans, LA in March 2005, and the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference was held in Tampa, FL in May 2005.

[Derek Ortt]

on the same token, lets talk about all of the bad breaks that occurred in 2004

1. Alex did not have to make that northward wobble and get into the warm sector. Hat should have received nothing more than TS winds, not 90KT gusts

2. Charley did not have to bomb right before hitting and obliterating the western subarbs of Havana.

3. Charley did not have to get inot the warm sector and explode

4. Charley did not have to whack the centers of Orlando and Daytona

5. Charley did not have to maintain hurricane intensity into Carolina.

5. Gaston did not have to have that UL ridge set up perfectly, enaling it to become a cane

6. Gaston did not have to devastate Richmond with surprise flooding.

7. Hermine had no business hitting MA as a tropical storm

8. Frances did not have to move like a paralyzed snail across Florida.

9. Frances did not have to make a final GOM landfall

10. Ivan DEFINATELY did not have to line Cayman up like it did

11. Jeanne did not have to take motion lessons from Frances while over Haiti, saving 2,000 lives

12. Jeanne could have mvoed out to sea

13. Matthew could have hit as a TD

14. The subtropical disturbance that killed more than Jeanne in Haiti last May had no business doing so. Lucky inflow band caused that

15. Bonnie did nto have to produce so many tornadoes, same for Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne

I think the luck last year at least washed out, or did come back to bite us, finally

[Eyes2theSkies]

great synopsis Derek you hit the nail on the noggin

[wxman57]

Many states have their own hurricane conferences. I know that the Mississippi conference is in Gulfport on June 13th. There's a Texas hurricane conference May 17-19 in Beaumont. South Florida has a hurriane conference in June, around the 14th-16th. Louisiana doesn't have a big conference, nor does Alabama or Georgia.

[cyclonaut]

I think the good breaks out did the bad ones.

Frances was already moving at a snails pace..imagine a snails pace but instead of CAT 2 she was CAT 4.

Also couldve been a few hundred miles south & been over metro Broward or Dade..The same could be said for Jeanne.

What if Charley would have hit Tampa or even recurved sooner & instead of crossing over central Fla he could ve hit South Fla & Miami.Not to mention the Keys wouldve have got pummeled.

So many wouldve & couldves..We will never know???

[LarryWx]

I think the good breaks out did the bad ones.

Frances was already moving at a snails pace..imagine a snails pace but instead of CAT 2 she was CAT 4.

Actually, it is very difficult for a storm that is moving at a snail's pace to maintain cat 4 status due to the cooling of the waters beneath it. Very slow moving storms are somewhat suicidal in a way since they are taking energy out of the water beneath them more quickly than weaker storms. With less potential energy left in the ocean, the tendency is for a weakening storm. If you look back in history, most cat 4+ strikers on the US were not wasting any time in moving toward the US coast.

[TS Zack]

In any situation you have good and the bad. The point is we got hit by what we got hit by.

We had many lucky breaks like Derek says but people will only look at the bad ones. What if they were all Cat 5's?

Anyway you look at it is we got what we got. Now lets learn from what we got and be prepared for what we may get. Problem there is last year proved we do not know what Mother Nature will throw at us.

[dhweather]

Many states have their own hurricane conferences. I know that the Mississippi conference is in Gulfport on June 13th. There's a Texas hurricane conference May 17-19 in Beaumont. South Florida has a hurriane conference in June, around the 14th-16th. Louisiana doesn't have a big conference, nor does Alabama or Georgia.

Sweet - I'll have to go!