Canadian joins the EPAC to Atlantic crossing fun.....

[Derecho]

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdf_50.gif


(Use the PSU site to see it through 144 hours; it actually ends up following a path nearly identical with the GFS and the UKMET (which both still has it at 0Z) which is truly remarkable for such a long range and odd forecast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When you start getting 3 models showing someing the chances go up.

[Derecho]

I've actually seen this many models with a crosser before for several runs, and it hasn't happened; can't quite remember the specific EPAC storms...

[KatDaddy]

Yo Derecho!

This mornings Key West AFD mentions the potential low pressure.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
UNCERTAINTY RULES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THINGS IN
THE CARIBBEAN ARE ALREADY INTERESTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE IN
PLACE...BUT THINGS LOOK TO GET EVEN MORE INTERESTING LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IGNORING THE SURFACE LOW FOR THE
MOMENT...IF THE GFS IS RIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CIRCULATION
SHOULD AT LEAST PULL CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD. IF EVERYTHING
PANS OUT LIKE THE GFS WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE...THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE WET. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTEND PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS...BUT GREATER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE WARRANTS
GREATER THAN AVERAGE POPS. LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST.

[Javlin]

The CMC was in my opinion one the best models out last season esp. with Ivan.Then the model varied from the rest in the last 24hrs for a few hrs then they came in line with the rest.This could be interesting but lets see if they show the same scenario come Wed. or Thurs.

[Javlin]

The NOGAPS last nite did not even show anything if I am not mistaken and the CMC really intensifies the system the most now.That will have to be seen to believe as much as I look at the CMC maps.One thing to note is the time frame difference.The NOGAPS and CMC are slow to move the system 144hrs to the coast.The UKMET and GFS are fast in 144hrs S of Cuba.These last two models seem to be relying on an UL off the E coast to move it over Cuba.This could be a nice dry run,if you can say,that for the upcoming saeson.