1800 UTC Model Guidance for 91L

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cycloneye
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1800 UTC Model Guidance for 91L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 15, 2005 1:40 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050515 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050515 1800 050516 0600 050516 1800 050517 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 78.1W 14.8N 76.7W 15.8N 75.7W 17.0N 75.1W
BAMM 14.1N 78.1W 14.5N 77.2W 14.9N 76.4W 15.3N 76.2W
A98E 14.1N 78.1W 14.5N 77.6W 15.2N 77.5W 15.7N 77.3W
LBAR 14.1N 78.1W 14.8N 76.7W 16.2N 75.2W 18.1N 73.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050517 1800 050518 1800 050519 1800 050520 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 74.2W 22.7N 65.8W 26.6N 52.4W 29.0N 43.8W
BAMM 16.3N 76.0W 17.7N 74.0W 18.1N 70.1W 18.1N 65.9W
A98E 16.0N 76.8W 17.2N 75.0W 18.2N 72.6W 19.1N 70.3W
LBAR 20.3N 71.2W 24.2N 65.5W 27.5N 59.3W 28.9N 55.3W
SHIP 37KTS 35KTS 25KTS 0KTS
DSHP 37KTS 35KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 78.1W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 78.9W DIRM12 = 63DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


In contrast to this mornings run this 1800 utc shows a little bit more development and if I see it right 37 kts?.But ship tends to overincrease intensity.
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kevin

#2 Postby kevin » Sun May 15, 2005 1:42 pm

Interesting!!
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 15, 2005 1:51 pm

It's very interesting that we are discussing in mid may about invest,model guidance,deep convection and the season has not started yet.
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Sun May 15, 2005 4:18 pm

Image
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#5 Postby P.K. » Sun May 15, 2005 4:48 pm

I know this is from 6 hours earlier but the global model only runs every 12 hours I believe:

535

WTNT80 EGRR 151724


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.05.2005


NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP

IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK


TOO 151724
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 15, 2005 4:48 pm

Darn almost the same track as the unnamed system of last May? :eek: Over 3,000 people died. This thing was worst then Jeanne.
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