Trough in the east for a while

[hurricanetrack]

This is a statement from the CPC 8-14 day GFS ensemble run discussion:

"Uncertainty grows as the spread among the ensemble members increases. The ensemble mean suggests a deep trough in the East and a strengthening ridge in the West. "

We will need to keep tabs on this as the Atlantic hurricane season gets underway. I also noticed too that the tornado chasers are not liking this kind of pattern either. They call it a "death ridge" as it essentially kills their chasing season.

[wxwonder12]

Hurricanetrak-

Sorry to sound nieve to this but can you explain in a little moire detail what your comment means?

[hurricanetrack]

Certainly-

Typically when there is a deep trough along the East Coast, hurricanes are safely steered out to sea- and away from the United States. This is not always the case, as a deep trough could capture a hurricane and yank it northward like Floyd in 1999. It all depends on where the trough is and where the hurricanes are. Last year there was a ridge of high pressure along the East Coast and western Atlantic, therefore 6 hurricanes were able to directly impact the United States. Of course, Charley was pulled north and east because of a strong trough heading in to the East. But for the most part, an East Coast trough will tend to protect the U.S. from landfalling hurricanes.

Hope this helps a little.

As far as the tornado chasers go- they like to see a strong trough digging in to the Great Plains. When this happens, there can be significant severe weather outbreaks and lots of tornadoes. When a ridge of high pressure sits out across the Plains, the weather is generally quiet- with only minor impulses providing any severe weather for the big game hunters out there.

[gatorcane]

interesting...it's been looking alot like last year across peninsula FL. Strong E winds have been the story with a nice ridge holding in the Atlantic...I hope we see a change or else I'm thinking the Bermuda High may be around in a big way again this year

[wxwonder12]

Does this mean that the Bermuda High seems to be setting up where it was last year, in a position to draw hurricanes to the East Coast instead of out to sea? At least for the time being because I know it can shift.

[cyclonaut]

I've posted lots of posts trying to explain that the weather pattern in Aug & Sept is the one to be focusing on.But some of you (Boca_Chris) are obsessed with this Bermuda High in May thing.

More power to you but I would suggest PMing one of the proMETS here & letting them educate you some on how weather patterns evolve.Whats here today may not be here tomorrow & vice versa.

[vacanechaser]

I've posted lots of posts trying to explain that the weather pattern in Aug & Sept is the one to be focusing on.But some of you (Boca_Chris) are obsessed with this Bermuda High in May thing.

More power to you but I would suggest PMing one of the proMETS here & letting them educate you some on how weather patterns evolve.Whats here today may not be here tomorrow & vice versa.

Glad someone finally said that... lol... May means nothing at this point. If you remember correctly, it was cool along a good portion of the east early on the last 2 years.. 2003, really no Bermuda high except for a few days.. Last year, it started setting up in August and tool a foot hold in the western Atlantic.... Not everything that happens in Florida means the hurricanes are coming back... It's May,,,,, relax..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hurricanetrack]

He said "it tool a foothold". That's fuinny.

[canegrl04]

Right now is not the time to be lured into a false sense of security,because the heart of cane season doesn't get underway till August