First model plots for 91L

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148504
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

First model plots for 91L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 15, 2005 7:16 am


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050515 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050515 0600 050515 1800 050516 0600 050516 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 78.5W 14.5N 77.2W 15.2N 75.1W 16.0N 73.0W
BAMM 14.0N 78.5W 15.0N 78.1W 15.9N 76.4W 16.7N 74.3W
A98E 14.0N 78.5W 14.6N 78.1W 15.2N 78.0W 15.7N 77.8W
LBAR 14.0N 78.5W 14.8N 77.3W 16.1N 75.8W 17.8N 73.8W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050517 0600 050518 0600 050519 0600 050520 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 70.9W 16.3N 68.2W 15.4N 65.7W 14.9N 61.8W
BAMM 17.1N 72.2W 17.1N 69.5W 16.9N 66.5W 17.1N 61.0W
A98E 15.9N 77.2W 17.1N 75.4W 17.9N 73.2W 18.6N 70.4W
LBAR 20.2N 71.4W 24.6N 64.5W 27.2N 58.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 22KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 22KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

This is no test as past ones were in the last few weeks.Interesting that the Model guidance made this run. However they dont show any development of it.The biggest threat will be the copius amounts of rain for the Greater Antilles.Also this low is crawling so it will take it's time to get out of the caribbean.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#2 Postby senorpepr » Sun May 15, 2005 10:56 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#3 Postby x-y-no » Sun May 15, 2005 11:08 am

This thing is too weak for the BAMs to get a grip on it ... if I had to pick among these tracks, I'd go with the A98E, useless as it is in most cases ;-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3044
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

#4 Postby msbee » Sun May 15, 2005 11:40 am

well, I certainly hope the BAMM is worng , because that brings it right over me. :(
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember
Top
kevin

#5 Postby kevin » Sun May 15, 2005 11:41 am

The tropical models dissipate it that far out msbee. Lets hope the rains stay away from you (unless you need some).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3044
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

#6 Postby msbee » Sun May 15, 2005 1:43 pm

we can always use the rain :lol:

Barbara
0 likes   
Too many hurricanes to remember
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Iceresistance, NotAHurricane, WaveBreaking and 573 guests