My nightly tropical discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.I will try to make discussion this season!!!

Tropical weather Discussion
5-13-2005



Interesting system formed last night just off the coast of central America. This area is currently under 25 to 30 knot shear, out of the west or northwest. This system had appeared to have developed a weak MLC/Mid level cirualtion at around 12.5 north/81.5 west. The shear has pushed most of the convection off to the east of any center. This system as of this afternoon was named invest 91L.


To the north is 50 to 70 knot shear. Caused by the Subtropical jet stream. The core of this jet is around 20 north. See Exp 1#

1#
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Looking at the last 24 hour shear Tendency maps. The shear has decreased 10 knots. But it is very unfavable still for tropical cyclone development at this time.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

This map shows that there is no real area of energy, near the 850 millibar level. So a cyclone can not form.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html


Now over the last 6 hours, this system has appeared to be getting its convection displaced.

Model thinking...

You can see that the high over the southeastern Canada is pushing the Subtropical jet south. Which is making this enviroment this system is near very unfavable. Also notice that the east to west winds to the south of the mid lat jet stream is moving through a tighter area. Which is one of the reasons why this system is even here.

A tropical wave a few days ago moved through the leeward islands. In now it has formed a area of low pressure. But with this tight stream throw. It is staying around backing up the energy into one area.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=000hr

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=012hr

By 24 hours the high to the north weakens. Which means the subtropical jet will likely not be so strong. Could it become more favable? Also a area of low pressure has replace it over southeastern Canada. On more thing to point out look north of the leeward islands around 20/63 that could be a trasport of the latin heat. Which is also something to watch. More later...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=024hr

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=030hr

We look at the shear now

500-850 millibars
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=000hr
Shear 500 millibars
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=000hr


It shows a very strong stream line of shear....

But as was side above the shear weakens a good amount...By this time the shear could be as low as 20 knots over the system. Which is not to unfavable.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=024hr

Now this is a very short window...By 30 hours it changes.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=030hr


The other system still has very strong shear. Maybe 50 knots just north of the leewards. No chance for development.

At 48 hours a system over the central Caribbean. In a system just north of the leewards.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=048hr

After a short time of increasing shear then it gets fairly favable at 48 hours. This is over the central caribbean system. The other is over 50 knot shear.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=048hr

60 into 72 hours this system moves into the northern Caribbean islands. While the shear southwest of it increases.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=060hr


This map shows that the system is warm core. In shows the track very nice. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/56.html

The seasurface temperatures are more then warm enough.

So we will be watching for tropical cyclone development, over the next few days.


The rest of the Atlantic there appeears to be high shear/Dry air or something else.


The Eastern Pacific is fairly favable below 15 north. Intill 120 west...A few tropical waves or low presures have formed. The most interesting tonight is around 8.5 north/97 west. This area has formed curving cdo. In it also has some good banding going on. A LLC good form at any time so we will keep watching it.

Computer models also forecast the development of it.


So this is all for tonight...

Forecaster Matthew

[senorpepr]

Good job, Matt. I'm glad you are listing links to support data. However, I must say, you may want to consider a disclaimer at the top until the admin creates a stanard disclaimer. We wouldn't want somebody mistaking this for official information. Nonetheless, good job.

[gatorcane]

Matt, we have been following this long before you got here. Why don't you post under a topic that has already been posted. Thanks.

[gatorcane]

Also Matt, your discussion has alot of "fluff" in myh opinion. Basically post under a current topic. We have already analyzed everything you have talked about. Thanks.

[senorpepr]

Matt's discussion was not exclusive for 91L, therefore a new topic isn't out of the question. He does mention the EPAC and other tropical waves, but with the little activity, granted, 91L was the focus of the discussion.

[mobilebay]

Also Matt, your discussion has alot of "fluff" in myh opinion. Basically post under a current topic. We have already analyzed everything you have talked about. Thanks.

I saw nothing wrong with his post AT ALL. I think he did a wonderful job. It was backed up by data that he posted. This is going to be a long season if we start jumping on people because they don't say what you want to hear. So please if you don't have something kind to say, don't say it. I followed his posts last year and he does A fine job.

[rainstorm]

great disco!!

[Jevo]

Also Matt, your discussion has alot of "fluff" in myh opinion. Basically post under a current topic. We have already analyzed everything you have talked about. Thanks.

This is an interactive forum. I think what Matt is doing is in the spirit of the board and should not be scrutinized. He provides links and information to backup his thoughts. Not saying that he is an expert but I think its good that he is showing mild proficiency.

Ive seen plenty of posts from others on this board that make a blanket statement like

"Florida is in trouble its been raining this month"

At least he tries to validate his statements

Lets try to encourage more posters like this on the forum I think it will only lead to a healthy debate once the season starts

Keep it up Matt... whether you're correct or not is something well discuss later..

PS MAKE SURE YOU POST THAT YOUR DISCUSSION IS YOUR ANALYSIS AND UNOFFICIAL

[gatorcane]

okay I agree...this is an interactive forum.

[Rainband]

Also Matt, your discussion has alot of "fluff" in myh opinion. Basically post under a current topic. We have already analyzed everything you have talked about. Thanks.

The discussion was very good and with all due respect you need to be less rude. Thanks

[x-y-no]

Also Matt, your discussion has alot of "fluff" in myh opinion. Basically post under a current topic. We have already analyzed everything you have talked about. Thanks.

The discussion was very good and with all due respect you need to be less rude. Thanks

Yes, from my perspective this is exactly the kind of thing this forum is about.

Thanks for the effort, Matt, keep it up please. You gave me a couple of things to think about.

Jan

[cyclonaut]

Good job Matt!!

Considering that you are or were Great One's sidekick for a while you know your stuff.

I hope you are staying as far away from the guy as possible.

[bevgo]

We are glad to see the moderators are on the job