Interesting discussion from HPC about Caribbean

[cycloneye]

DISCUSSION FROM MAY 13/0000 UTC...THE MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND ARE CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM
CORE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON DAY 2.

A 250 HPA
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HRS...WITH AXIS TO
EXTEND EAST-TO-WEST JUST NORTH OF 10N TO NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA. THIS FLOW IS GOING TO REMAIN DIFFLUENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN-HONDURAS/NICARAGUA DURING THE CYCLE...WITH
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
PERSIST IN THIS REGION THROUGH 48-60 HRS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...COUPLED WITH
THE DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT...IS FAVORING AN INFLOW OF DEEP
EQUATORIAL/ITCZ MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT VALUES OF 35-50MM. THIS IS
FEEDING A MESO SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...A SYSTEM THAT BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.
THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH 36-42 HRS...
MEANWHILE MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF COSTA RICA/EAST OF
NICARAGUA. THROUGH 54-60 HRS THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA...AND THROUGH 72-84 HRS IT IS TO
MOVE ACROSS HAITI. THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...AND THE
MEANDERING ITCZ...WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA
RICA-EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS. ACROSS PANAMA/
COSTA RICA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM/DAY...AND MAXIMA
OF 75-150MM OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS PATTERN
IS TO ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA-
NORTHERN HONDURAS-BELIZE AND GUATEMALA... TO FAVOR RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF 10-20MM/DAY...AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM OVER
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND 25-50MM OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/
NORTHERN HONDURAS. AS THE LOW NEARS JAMAICA...IT WILL
SUPPORT RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 75-150MM BY 42-60 HRS...TO AFFECT
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY 60-84 HRS. MODELS PROJECT MOST
INTENSE RAINFALL TO CONCENTRATE ON THE HAITIAN
PENINSULA/WESTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
MAXIMA TO EXCEED 200MM BY 84 HRS.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

If this track verifies it may take it thru Haiti and we know what happened in may 2004 with a strong low pressure moving thru that country how tragic it was.But the main factor against this to develop into a TD or a storm is the persistant upper shear of between 40-60kts in the caribbean especially north of 15n.

[Rainband]

FXUS62 KTBW 131700
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005


.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION/ ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD...PUSHING A DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST DOWN OVER THE CWFA. LIMITED MOISTURE AND
ENERGY SUPPORTS A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT MON
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILD NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS HIGH DOMINATES
THE AREA AS IT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE
HIGH WILL HAVE RIDGED E-W ACROSS THE SOUTH END OF THE CWFA. THIS
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON BAY/SEA BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION. SOME OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS TRACK A LOW NE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK. IF
THAT DOES HAPPEN...LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SHUD HAVE A GENERAL ERLY FLOW TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN
THRU THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING MORE OF A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. A
WEAKENING FRONT WILL SLIP THRU THE AREA TO START THE NEXT WEEK...
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THAT...PROVIDING MORE OF A
NRLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
KEEP AREA ABOVE THRESHOLD CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 86 67 85 / 00 10 00 00
FMY 65 87 66 87 / 00 10 00 10
GIF 65 87 65 87 / 00 10 00 10
SRQ 63 84 65 84 / 00 10 00 00
BKV 58 86 60 87 / 00 10 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

[dixiebreeze]

Good posts. Thanks Cycloneye and Rainband.

[Rainband]

Guess time will tell if anything comes from this. The thing I like about our local discussions is they don't try to make anything out of nothing. They are cut and dry. No hype just the facts.