William Gray likely to increase predictions on May 31st..

[iceangel]

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/new ... 5810.shtml

Forecaster likely to increase storm count
Prediction to be released in a few weeks
May 13, 2005
Lesley Conn@PensacolaNewsJournal.com

TAMPA -- Hurricane forecaster William Gray is likely to increase his storm prediction numbers later this month.

His initial 2005 prediction in April called for 13 named storms, with seven of them hurricanes and three of them major -- Category 3 or higher. But that likely will increase to 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes, he said Thursday.

Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, is the scheduled speaker today at the closing session of the 2005 Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference. His updated prediction, however, will not be announced until May 31.

But Gray said Thursday that he expects to up his prediction of storms because he anticipates a weak El Nino system, which portends a stronger, more active hurricane season.

During the next two weeks, Gray and his research associate, Philip Klotzbach, will be analyzing El Nino activity and upper-atmospheric winds.

El Nino winds, which are generated out of the Pacific, will be key, Gray said. Other atmospheric and oceanic factors, including warmer temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, also indicate an active season, he said.

"The Atlantic is looking as warm or warmer than it ever has,'' he said.

Gray's prediction for the 2004 season fell short of what actually happened.

His initial prediction called for 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them intense. The year ended with 15 named storms, including nine hurricanes, six of them major.

The National Hurricane Center will release its long-range forecast on Monday, but the center's director, Max Mayfield, already is saying he foresees another active season.

Like Gray, Mayfield points to historical data that shows since 1995 the United States has entered a period when hurricanes are more intense, longer in duration and higher in number

Only twice in the past 10 years have hurricane seasons been uncharacteristically mild "" 1997 and 2002, Mayfield and Gray said. Those years had strong El Nino patterns.

This active cycle could last another 20 years, Mayfield said.

"We're in this active season whether we like it or not,'' he said.

Dave Ling, Santa Rosa County's director of emergency management, said the county anticipates an active year by training staff later this month on a new computer system and on what to take to a shelter site. The county also is securing contingency contracts for generators, portable toilets and comfort stations, he said.

What he hopes the county doesn't get is a call from Mayfield, who contacts each county emergency management director where a storm is expected to make landfall.

"I like Max a lot,'' Ling said. "But I don't like his phone calls.''

Some Pensacola residents see other signs indicating an active hurricane season.

Linda Davis, the guidance secretary at Woodham High School, spent the months after Hurricane Ivan working under a dripping, damaged ceiling.

The heavy spring rains and cool temperatures remind her of spring 1995.

"The last time we had a relatively cool, wet spring, we had a really active hurricane season,'' she said. "That year was the year we had Erin and Opal."
©The Pensacola News Journal
May 13, 2005

[HURRICANELONNY]

If that prediction is right then I would think it would cut the #'s slightly. I say 13 is the lucky # this year. Not quiet as active as last year but still severe. Remember it only takes one to ruin your day.

[Steve H.]

The radio in Melbourne this morning said he might release his numbers today in Miami. More likely he will drip water, then release his numbers in June, unless he wants immediate awareness

[Scorpion]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thank god in grayhound. I'm forecasting 15 named storms 8 hurricanes. 4 Maj hurricanes.

I hope we have a season like 1995.

[Javlin]

I just hope people are prepared and safe.That these systems fizzle out before impact but are fun trackers.

[dixiebreeze]

Good post, iceangel, thanks!

[cajungal]

Active or not. It only takes 1. Andrew in 1992 prime example. Betsy in 1965 another example.

[James]

That's a very good point. To a lesser extent you could probably say that Hurricane Gordon of 1994 was the same.

[mf_dolphin]

I had the opportunity to hear Dr Gray speak today at the Florida Hurricane Conference. He was very pointed about the increase in activity for the next 15-20 years. His message to the conference was very clear that Florida and the US in general have been spoiled in the 70's through early 90's. Every warm period for the Atlantic has shown a dramatic increase in both named systems and US landfalls. Look for his team to increase their numbers come May 31st.

[cyclonaut]

Active or not. It only takes 1. Andrew in 1992 prime example. Betsy in 1965 another example.

Good point!!

& The Florida Keys Hurricane of 35 is another example.Only 6 NS that year & 1 of them was the most powerful hurricane to ever hit the U.S.

[cycloneye]

The Associated Press
Friday, May 13, 2005

TAMPA - The bad news is hurricane season starts in less than three weeks.

The worse news is that one of the nation's most renowned forecasters thinks the season will be worse than he thought just a few weeks ago.

Colorado State University William Gray expects to increase his storm prediction numbers this month.

Gray sees weak El Niño activity in the Pacific, and that usually translates to more active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic. El Niño is a warming of Pacific Ocean waters near the Equator that typically occurs every 3 to 7 years. Such an event dictates a shift in "normal" weather patterns.

Last month, Gray's team predicted 13 named storms for this season. They thought seven would build into hurricanes and three would be major hurricanes.

In his initial 2005 forecast in December, Gray had called for 11 tropical storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes