Look at 14 north/82 west just off the coast. There seems to be a MLC forming. Deep convection. The models show a area of low pressure developing in moving northeastward after 24 hours. Could it be?
I will be tracking this closely!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Very Interesting indeed!!!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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weatherwindow
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those are some serious cloudtops. 
...wonder when we will see the invest posted?....upper level winds are still pretty hostile however that may ease a bit as the mcc moves northeast over time. i was looking for pressure data out of san andreas or bluefields but neither was posted. does anyone out there have access to current data and have there been any pressure falls as of yet? 
...wonder when we will see the invest posted?....upper level winds are still pretty hostile however that may ease a bit as the mcc moves northeast over time. i was looking for pressure data out of san andreas or bluefields but neither was posted. does anyone out there have access to current data and have there been any pressure falls as of yet?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Looking at this satellite there appears to be twisting going on. Looks like we got are selfs a nice MLC. Now we will start watching for a LLC. This is shown by the models to move northeast then stop some of them.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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cycloneye
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SKBQ.html
In Baranquilla,Colombia very low pressures there since last night.
In Baranquilla,Colombia very low pressures there since last night.
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senorpepr
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This is something interesting. I'm not too excited about ringing the development bell yet, but it is something that catches my eye. Actually, I've been monitoring this region for a few days now, mainly with the low over northern Colombia.
The development of convection this evening is surely impressive. Also, model guidance, as Matt mention, is hinting as some sort of deepening.
Here's the kicker, shear aloft of this low is 30-40kt. The models forecast the low to track toward the northeast over the next few days toward a >70kt shear region. In both of these areas, the trend is that shear is increasing for the near term.
So my thoughts on development is very limited. Here in a few days, however, there could be a low develop in the Atlantic for this system. As for whether it will be subtropical or extratropical, I believe extra- at this time, but we shall see. I just don't believe the overall conditions from now through the end of next week will be fair enough for something to get rolling.
The development of convection this evening is surely impressive. Also, model guidance, as Matt mention, is hinting as some sort of deepening.
Here's the kicker, shear aloft of this low is 30-40kt. The models forecast the low to track toward the northeast over the next few days toward a >70kt shear region. In both of these areas, the trend is that shear is increasing for the near term.
So my thoughts on development is very limited. Here in a few days, however, there could be a low develop in the Atlantic for this system. As for whether it will be subtropical or extratropical, I believe extra- at this time, but we shall see. I just don't believe the overall conditions from now through the end of next week will be fair enough for something to get rolling.
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