Hurricane Alley May 05 out

[Blown Away]

Keys are a low risk, but west/central Cuba and north/central Bahama's are moderate to high.

[cyclonaut]

I love how the Bahamas & Cuba are in red but Fla peninisula is not.

[James]

They must be envisaging a very sharp recurvature.

[cyclonaut]

They must be envisaging a very sharp recurvature.

I want that crystal ball they use.

Sorry I dont buy these landfall forecasts this far out.

[hcane]

1 (2002 forecast only for August, September, October)
STORM LANDFALLS

Year
Forecast
Actual
20021
Canadian Maritimes
Y

Central Gulf Coast
Y

Eastern Yucatan
Y

Northern Leeward Is.
N

Western Cuba
Y


Forecasted 5 landfalls --
4 occurred or 80%



2003
Bermuda
Y

Eastern Yucatan
Y

Florida Big Bend
Y

Florida NE to North Carolina
Y

Greater Antilles
N

Mexico Northern
Y

Mexico Southern
N

Northern Leeward Is.
Y

Southeast Louisiana
Y

Texas
N


Forecasted 10 landfalls --
7 occurred or 70%



2004
Bahamas
Y

Central Gulf Coast
Y

Florida Southeast
Y

Florida Southwest
Y

Greater Antilles
Y

Leeward/Windward Is.
Y

North Carolina
Y

South Carolina
Y

Southern New England
Y

Western Cuba
Y


Forecasted 10 landfalls --
10 occurred or 100%




OVERALL PERFORMANCE
Forecasted 25 landfalls --
21 occurred or 84%


but I would be shocked if it were a crystal ball

[James]

They must be envisaging a very sharp recurvature.

I want that crystal ball they use.

Sorry I dont buy these landfall forecasts this far out.

Yes, I think they definitely need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

[cycloneye]

I see that Puerto Rico is at a low probability area shaded in yellow but a few miles to the east in the leeward islands they have moderate risk shaded in orange.If that holds true then it means that the bermuda high will not be not be so strong and systems that may affect the leewards will turn to the north without affecting Puerto Rico by escaping thru a weakness.Doing landfall forecasts with many months of anticipation is IMO not a good thing to do because the patterns change constantly and you may have a fairly strong Bermuda High anchored in the western atlantic but then something happens that the ridge weakens or moves to the east and that pattern change screw up any landfalling forecasts that are made with 4-5 months in advance.