If one applies the CPC's standard definition of an El Niño, the weak El Niño from winter 2004-05 is finished. Briefly, the definition is: El Niño: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Niño 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5C, averaged over three consecutive months.
The last three months have not met El Niño criteria in Region 3.4.
Region 3.4 Monthly Anomalies:
February 2005: +0.27°C
March 2005: +0.40°C
April 2005: +0.36°C
Monthly ENSO Anomalies: Winter '04-'05 El Niño Ended
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Rainstorm,
For April, Region 3.4 is warmer this year than April 2004. Region 1+2 was somewhat cooler. However, May 2004 saw a dramatic cooling in Region 1+2 and I don't think cooling will occur to that extent this year, though some cooling is likely.
Also, it should be noted that the April ENSO regional data still supports the idea of a neutral ENSO situation during the June-July-August period.
Currently, the temperatures in ENSO Regions 1+2 and 3.4 rank 35th and 14th warmest respectively since regular recordkeeping began in 1950.
If one examines the 15 years with the closest similarities in the April ENSO region anomalies and selects those that also ranked in the top 15 over the latest 3-month period, one comes up with the following years: 1952, 1966, 1970, 1982, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, and 2003.
6/9 (67%) of those seasons saw no El Niño during the June-August period. If one just takes the April anomalies into consideration, 7/10 (70%) and 12/15 (80%) of the top 10 and top 15 matches saw no El Niño during the June-August period.
However, almost half saw an El Niño during the following winter.
Whether or not an El Niño redevelops during the June-August period would have implications for the June-August temperature anomalies. If there is a new El Niño, temperatures in the East would likely be cooler. If not, things should be on track for a warmer summer.
For April, Region 3.4 is warmer this year than April 2004. Region 1+2 was somewhat cooler. However, May 2004 saw a dramatic cooling in Region 1+2 and I don't think cooling will occur to that extent this year, though some cooling is likely.
Also, it should be noted that the April ENSO regional data still supports the idea of a neutral ENSO situation during the June-July-August period.
Currently, the temperatures in ENSO Regions 1+2 and 3.4 rank 35th and 14th warmest respectively since regular recordkeeping began in 1950.
If one examines the 15 years with the closest similarities in the April ENSO region anomalies and selects those that also ranked in the top 15 over the latest 3-month period, one comes up with the following years: 1952, 1966, 1970, 1982, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, and 2003.
6/9 (67%) of those seasons saw no El Niño during the June-August period. If one just takes the April anomalies into consideration, 7/10 (70%) and 12/15 (80%) of the top 10 and top 15 matches saw no El Niño during the June-August period.
However, almost half saw an El Niño during the following winter.
Whether or not an El Niño redevelops during the June-August period would have implications for the June-August temperature anomalies. If there is a new El Niño, temperatures in the East would likely be cooler. If not, things should be on track for a warmer summer.
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