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chadtm80 · #1 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 1:18 pm

look at this baby... Not to shaby... Just a month or so early :wink:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 1:48 pm

Pretty cool. I think it's a little too low lattitude wise though :cry:

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 2:44 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Yes looks good that area but that is part of the ITCZ that is active east of 40w but no tropical waves has been analized but may will come and those first tropical waves will begin to emerge africa but weak ones and as time goes by late july,august and september then we will have to look at that region of the world.

Steve H. · #4 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 2:49 pm

Actually, I snuck a peek at that this morning myself. Is a good sign that the ITCZ is beginning to get active. Didn't get active too early as in past years, which is IMO a positive sign towards an active tropical season, though I have no basis for that claim. But in the tropics, timing is everything. SSTs coming up; ITCZ getting active with waves beginning to cross the Atlantic; summer pattern starting to now show up below 30 north. 8)

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 2:59 pm

Pretty cool. I think it's a little too low lattitude wise though

Yeah, but as time progresses the ITCZ will slowly migrate northward in latitude (as it does every year), giving these disturbances more opportunity to develop low level circulations.

As for the ITCZ right now, its being amplified by the presence of a negative madden-julian oscillation wave. Thus, instead of the ITCZ smoothly becoming more active day after day, we will see it slowly become active WITH fluctuations (as the two MJO phases move in and out). Will the ITCZ overall be more active/further north than normal this season? That, I will not say until our seasonal forecast is released at the end of May.

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 3:00 pm

That's true, Rob. Nice to see this feature nonetheless. The way things seem so far, we may have a surface low form in the Atlantic Basin more easily than lasts years infamous ULL's. :lol:

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 3:07 pm

Supercane wrote:[. Will the ITCZ overall be more active/further north than normal this season? That, I will not say until our seasonal forecast is released at the end of May.

I can't wait to hear what your answer is!! :wink:

Colin · #8 Postby **Colin** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 3:37 pm

Yes, it's great to see that the ITCZ is beginning to get active... I think the 2003 Hurricane Season will be a pretty active one!

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 5:51 pm

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 5:57 pm

Cool..!!!!!!!!!!!! 8) 8) Or should I say COLD as in cloud tops :wink:

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 6:46 pm

Yes, you should say COLD as in cloud tops! :wink:

deb_in_nc · #12 Postby **deb_in_nc** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 6:57 pm

Hey Chad. Could you pass along that sat link to me? That link is a keeper for sure.

Debbie

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:36 pm

The eastern atlantic is not favorable for anything to develop due to shear that still is in the deep tropics because of the troughs that go south at winter but slowly but surely those troughs will lift out to the northern atlantic and the shear will fade away making the cv region more favorable by late july,august and september.

But that area of disturbed weather off africa if it were august the TPC would call it a strong tropical wave indeed.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:36 pm

deb_in_fl wrote:Hey Chad. Could you pass along that sat link to me? That link is a keeper for sure.

Still image
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

Animation
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... cjava.html

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:But that area of disturbed weather off africa if it were august the TPC would call it a strong tropical wave indeed.

If it were August, the TPC would call it what it is, ITCZ-associated convection. Regardless, I'm sure we'll be seeing MUCH more impressive disturbances (and yes, strong waves) rolling off Africa by the time August comes.

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 11:17 pm

If the appearance on the latest satellite images exist at times between now and August then that MAY mean development would be more likely, certainly not for sure.

deb_in_nc · #17 Postby **deb_in_nc** » Tue Apr 29, 2003 5:17 pm

Thanks for the links Rob. Awesome pics.

Debbie

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