Ridge might build in after this week

[boca]

Reading some of the discussions around the state.I think the ridge will come back this weekend and provide us with a dry May after this week. Don't jump on me its just an opinion. The trough is already lifting up towards central Florida meaning the ridge will build into S FLA. This doesn't mean I want hurricanes to come this way its just an obervation.

[gatorcane]

come on man aren't you -removed-! lol. Don't let those people scare you off, they don't usually have anything interesting to say anyway besides coming up with accusations...yes, I agree with you. My prediction is calling for a dry May after this week as the ridge builds in and South Florida gets into a fairly dominant E wind pattern. I say this because we started seeing hints of the ridge within the past couple of weeks and there has been so much troughiness this whole winter it's about time for a pattern change that should stick around for most of the summer. BUT, if we see these troughs continue through May with W winds across South Florida as we saw today (storms developed over the Everglades and pushed towards the coast) I think the chances of hurricanes hitting FL from the E are far less as we'll see less persistent ridging this summer. Or course there is always a chance for ridging to take place when a hurricane is out there at the right place and time but the chances would be less.

[boca]

I'm actually wishcating for 50's tonight in S FL, it aint gonna happen. After this trough moves out,the ridge builds in probably for the rest of May.Along with East or SE winds of 15 knots.

[gatorcane]

yep, well I'm sure that we'll see some troughs try to approach but they will have a difficult time moving as far south as each week passes. E and SE winds at 15 knots are almost here.

[senorpepr]

I'm not calling you a wishcaster or anything, but I'm not sure if I agree with the idea of the subtropical ridge building back toward the southeast. Again, I'm not getting after you at all, I'm just wondering what the folk writing those discussion are seeing.



I've posted the latest TAFB surface analysis of the Atlantic so that I can identify features that I saw while looking through the models earlier today. Through the middle of next week I see the frontal system and associated low in the central Atlantic moving further north. Meanwhile, the center of the subtropical high (way up north between Canada and France) will continue to retrograde northward and weaken. Meanwhile, the ridging you see extending toward the Bahamas will be pushed out to see as the stationary front drifts eastward.

It appears that toward the weekend and the beginning of next week, the high that is along the East Coast will build and move eastward as a developing low forms off the East Coast. By next Wednesday, it looks like the subtropical ridge will be elongated north-to-south with a low to the northeast of Bermuda and a rather deep low off the Iberian Peninsula.

With that said, like me make a disclaimer that this is based off of a few model ensembles and we'll have to see what happens as it occurs. Furthermore, this next week's pattern will not be pivotal toward the Atlantic basin's tropical activity. Also, as far as I'm concerned, the ridge may build back in toward the middle of May... we'll just have to see...