SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[cycloneye]

The above grafic is the latest about the anomalys in the Atlantic Basin.Hummmm the Tropical Atlantic continues on the warming phase it has been for a few months back.And the COA area is warming more faster.But will these anomalys stay like this or they cool a little when August and September arrive? Another question is if this above average warm MDR region cancels the effects of the weak el nino in the pacific?.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Yes...the waters will warm in the Gulf of Mexico...however, that does not necessarily mean Arlene will form there. It is quite possible for a frontal end to make it to the Caribbean and then have a storm form there.

[cycloneye]

Yes...the waters will warm in the Gulf of Mexico...however, that does not necessarily mean Arlene will form there. It is quite possible for a frontal end to make it to the Caribbean and then have a storm form there.

Yes agree that the western Caribbean will be the area that may see Arlene form.

[cycloneye]

The Gulf Of Mexico still has very cool sst's but they will start to rise soon.Also the Western Atlantic has cool sst's maybe for 2 reasons=First the upwelling of the last years hurricanes and second some strong gale centers that haved moved thru the western Atlantic in the past 3 months that haved contributed to cool those waters.



The Caribbean sea waters are starting to warm up nicely more early due to the very dry conditions the whole caribbean basin has been thru in the months of January,Febuary and March and the lack of cloud cover causes the sst's to warm more quickly.



And what can I say about the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles.They are warm from 40w to 60w for the same reason that the caribbean and that is lack of cloud cover so the MDR region is very favorable in March for systems to have the fuel to grow.Imagine when August and September arrive.But the systems may have the fuel in favor but other factors may play a negative roll or not so what we have to do is to look at those other factors to see how more favorable the Atlantic will be in 2005.

The MDR area in the Tropical Atlantic is warming a bit more than in the past 3 weeks.Also the COA area has anomalys going up to +1.5c.On contrast the coolest area in the Atlantic are the Gulfstream waters off the east coast and in the Gulf Of Mexico especially in the northern to central area of the GOM.Also in parts of the western atlantic near the Bahamas are still cool.

[Scorpion]

Looks like the Gulf Stream waters are starting to warm up a bit too. The anomolies aren't quite as cold as they used to be.

[Hyperstorm]

Of course, we all know that the most decisive factor for determining development in the Tropical Atlantic are the Upper-Level Winds since SSTs are warm year-round in many areas, but SSTs are a major factor for determining rapid changes in strength in a hurricane. That's why they are very important as well. All things being equal, the warmer the SSTs, the higher the potential for rapid intensification in a cyclone. So, we could be in for a very STRONG season ahead with these warm anomalies throughout the Atlantic. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4 or more major hurricanes this year 2005... AGAIN.

Also, those anomalies right off the coast of Africa of 2-3*C (which is a LOT) and a widespread area of 1*C just makes it much more likely to see an early Cape Verde season, as the major factor why the tropical waves' convection fizzles right off the coast in June and July is the SSTs being too cool.

If Upper-Level Winds and the Saharan Air Layer are favorable we will likely see the Cape Verde season start before August and a very active one for sure...

[Scorpion]

It would be nice if we see a few CV storms in July, like in 1996. Hopefully we got some more early season development and then a long lull until late August, when we hopefully see some big CV storms developing.

[cycloneye]

Of course, we all know that the most decisive factor for determining development in the Tropical Atlantic are the Upper-Level Winds since SSTs are warm year-round in many areas, but SSTs are a major factor for determining rapid changes in strength in a hurricane. That's why they are very important as well. All things being equal, the warmer the SSTs, the higher the potential for rapid intensification in a cyclone. So, we could be in for a very STRONG season ahead with these warm anomalies throughout the Atlantic. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4 or more major hurricanes this year 2005... AGAIN.

Also, those anomalies right off the coast of Africa of 2-3*C (which is a LOT) and a widespread area of 1*C just makes it much more likely to see an early Cape Verde season, as the major factor why the tropical waves' convection fizzles right off the coast in June and July is the SSTs being too cool.

If Upper-Level Winds and the Saharan Air Layer are favorable we will likely see the Cape Verde season start before August and a very active one for sure...

I agree with your anaylisis about this.I am watching very closely too the MDR area which concerns me of course.However something to keep in mind is that those very high anomalys off the COA can make some waves develop more faster and it increases the chance that some of them may go away from the caribbean but knowing about Cape Verde tracks from many years past I know some waves that haved formed in the Eastern Atlantic close to Africa had made it all the way thru the Tropical Atlantic into the Caribbean as very strong canes and some examples are Allen=1980,Gilbert=1988,Hugo=1989,Georges=1998 just to name a handfull.

[cycloneye]

The GOM waters are starting to warm as it is expected but in a slow pace at this time.The Gulfstream waters still are cool but some signs of warming are there but not in a fast pace.The Caribbean sea especially the western Caribbean is very warm and the Tropical Atlantic is very warm from 40w to 60w south of 20n.



The MDR area in the Tropical Atlantic is warming a bit more than in the past 3 weeks.Also the COA area has anomalys going up to +1.5c.On contrast the coolest area in the Atlantic are the Gulfstream waters off the east coast and in the Gulf Of Mexico especially in the northern to central area of the GOM.Also in parts of the western atlantic near the Bahamas are still cool.

[cycloneye]

The grafic above is the latest issued from the 30th of April.It stands out very prominently the COA reds meaning anomalys of around +3.0c.

[gatorcane]

thanks for the graphic, yes it's still relatively cool across the FL waters ironically but I expect that we'll see 80+ around the surrounding waters by June 1

[cycloneye]

thanks for the graphic, yes it's still relatively cool across the FL waters ironically but I expect that we'll see 80+ around the surrounding waters by June 1

With time those areas like the GOM and the western Atlantic including the Gulfstream waters that are not warm now will warm up to normal values.

[x-y-no]

Yeah ... lots of warm water in the MDR.

[cycloneye]

Yeah ... lots of warm water in the MDR.

And especially those +3.0c are very warm off West Africa.

[Scorpion]

Dang! Thats insane warm waters off of Africa. Could aid in developing those waves.

[canegrl04]

Looks like in a couple more weeks,there will be 80 degree temps in the GOM . Also Looking like things are setting up for an early,and very active season

[cycloneye]

Surely the GOM waters haved been warming slowly and right now the Central Gulf is the most warmest with upper 70's.

[Anonymous]

I have to disagree. Waters on the Weather Channel maps show 72 degrees near Tampa Bay, while currently, Tampa Bay is 79 degrees. So...if the TWC map shows 77 degrees in the middle Gulf of Mexico, it could very well be more in the 84 degree range.

[vbhoutex]

I have to disagree. Waters on the Weather Channel maps show 72 degrees near Tampa Bay, while currently, Tampa Bay is 79 degrees. So...if the TWC map shows 77 degrees in the middle Gulf of Mexico, it could very well be more in the 84 degree range.

Mike what do you base that on except your own speculation? That 79º could be an anamoly just in the bay itself for that matter. We are at 72º for GOM waters here in the Hou/Gal area which is a one degree difference from the map. Seems pretty accurate to me. What are the Gulf Bouys showing?

[cycloneye]

I have to disagree. Waters on the Weather Channel maps show 72 degrees near Tampa Bay, while currently, Tampa Bay is 79 degrees. So...if the TWC map shows 77 degrees in the middle Gulf of Mexico, it could very well be more in the 84 degree range.

Are you implying that these grafics that I am posting at this thread are not real data? Well you posted the Caribbean grafic at another thread meaning you think that data is good.