Too Many Complacent People in South Florida

[MGC]

Yes, 75 miles removed from the eyewall of a hurricane is nothing. Lucky if you get TS force winds that far away.

It has been since 1947 since New Orleans had a direct hit from a major hurricane. Betsy in 1965 passed to the south of New Orleans yet caused major wind damage. I was there. The problem with potential wind damage in New Orleans is the current termite infestation. What? Termites? Yes, the New Orleans area is being eaten up by formosian termites. They are bad here on the Miss coast also. Most of New Orleans is rather old. Most of the building are infested with termites which has caused the building to become very weak. So weak that the building will fail in a major hurricane. Add to that the surge that will top the levee system and New Orleans will not be the place to be for a major hurricane.....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

the Rickenbacker is the causeway connecting MIA to Key Biscayne east of the city (the island immediately south of South Beach)

[Derek Ortt]

one other factor that causes more direct hits at Cape Fear and Hat, the storms are more spread out by that time; thus, the RMW can be as much as 40NM, compared to about 10-20NM for MIA. A storm doesn't have to pass as close to those areas to score a direct hit as it does to MIA

[Scorpion]

Its easier for Palm Beach County or the Treasure Coast to be directly hit than Miami I think. Very rarely do you get a strong enough high to support straight west movement all the way through.

[LSU2001]

The Long blue track in the graphic from page one is Betsy in 1965,
The last significant cane to hit southeast La. Andrew hit but further west and did not cause major damage to Southeast La. If you think people are complacent in FLA. try southeast La. Many are determined not to evacuate the NOLA area because of the major traffic jams and even building standards are slipping.
I was talking to some friends in Lafourche parish a few days ago about home construction and they were telling me that they have started building houses with drywall directly on studs in that area because it has been so long since a big cane hit. They advised me to look for an older house with better construction standards. Many people in that area simply overlook the impact of a major cane.

[gatorcane]

lsu2001 what you say is exactly why I posted this topic. We have generally become complacent since the 1960-2003 period has relatively quiet for the U.S. (there a exceptions of course, e.g. Hugo, Andrew, etc). Fortunatelyl 2004 removed some of the complaceny but that was defined to FL only. But I'm very afraid that we could be moving back into the regime that we saw from 1926-1959 which would put our coastal metro cities at very high risk. Look at all the development we have seen since 1960 along the coastal U.S in particular South Florida. South Florida is a disaster waiting to happen in my opinion. It may not necessarily be this year but certainly within the next few years. I want you to copy my posts so that you can look at them when all of this happens within the next few years. South Florida will be struck by a major hurricane and I'm afraid the extent of the damage that will result. Building codes are not up to standards. As for other areas, all we can do is get the point across to people that we are not in slow hurricane times anymore so they better build to code and take precautions now as necessary. But I'm afraid that our effort will not bear fruit.

[Derek Ortt]

sfla will be hit again, and hit hard, without a doubt.

However, not all areas are complacent. I know NC is not after the blasting they have taken ever since 1984 with Diana hit then twice (13 hurricane impacts, tying it with FL

[Cookiely]

I'm far from an expert on building materials and codes, but I recently saw some condos being built in Tampa where my aunt lives. The second floor was styrofoam with pressed wood on the outside, and a thin layer of stucco. Does this sound okay? I broke a piece of the foam with my hands and I threw a piece of the pressed wood and it split in two. I just can't imagine the devastation to the city of Tampa if we get a direct hit. Thousands of the older homes in Ybor City and West Tampa are fragile. The historic homes have been remodeled and up to specs but what good is that when its two blocks from Tampa Bay. Their building million dollar plus homes on a spit of land between two shipping channels leading to Tampa Bay. Its where part of the ship yard used to be.

[gatorcane]

Yes, I've driven through some of the older historic districts of Tampa such as Ybor. But there are alot of older homes and buildings in the Tampa Bay area. I'm concerned about those but more concerned about new construction that is taking place. With the real estate boom that has escalated within the past 5 years or so in FL, I'm noticing how quickly it seems condos/townhouse/homes are being built just so that the builder can make a quick buck. I really doubt that they are paying careful attention to hurricane codes considering how quickly they are being built. Perhaps along the water they might pay more attention but hurricane force winds can extend far inland if the storm is strong enough

[gatorcane]

Check out this recent article on the South Florida real-estate boom. I think people conveniently forget about how vulnerable S. Florida is to Hurricanes....it's going to take a major one to wake them up. All I have to say is I would not invest in South Florida along the water. It's coming...

[url]
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/life_condos_dc
[/url]

snippet:

In the city of Miami, more than 60,000 high-rise condo units are in some stage of planning or construction, officials say. The city has fewer than 400,000 people, a fraction of greater Miami's 2.3 million population.

A flood of money from Latin America and Europe has financed 30- and 40-story tower projects in Miami's Brickell banking district, downtown's Biscayne Boulevard and on flashy South Beach, as developers sell urban lifestyle and boomers seek water view homes.

The median price of an existing U.S. home climbed from $156,000 to $185,000 from 2002 to 2004, according to the National Association of Realtors. The price of a greater Miami home shot from $190,000 to $277,000 in the same period.

[StormChasr]

yeah, yeah, doom and gloom--what else is new?

[gatorcane]

doom and gloom? How could South Florida have this many people moving to it, buying Condos/houses on the water where it is inevitable that a major hurricane will hit and destroy everything. Fortunately the 1960s through present hasn't been bad but if we are moving into a period like the 1930s-1950s (like many think we are) watch out I think S. Florida is positioning itself for disaster....not doom and gloom my friend..reality.

[StormChasr]

doom and gloom? How could South Florida have this many people moving to it, buying Condos/houses on the water where it is inevitable that a major hurricane will hit and destroy everything. Fortunately the 1960s through present hasn't been bad but if we are moving into a period like the 1930s-1950s (like many think we are) watch out I think S. Florida is positioning itself for disaster....not doom and gloom my friend..reality.

Lighten up and enjoy life. Florida real estate hasn't even come close to peaking. Hurricanes have been a fact of life in Florida, forever. If you can't deal with it--then sell. Frankly, I don't see a big real estate bust, nor do many of my banker/investor friends.

[gatorcane]

yeah you are right....but S. Florida real estate is going up extremely fast. Without a hurricane to stop it, it will be S. Cali here before we know it.

[gatorcane]

but here is my prediction....and it's JUST AN OPINION. S. FL will not pass S. Cali because we will move into an active period of hurricanes sometime within the next few decades...we will see successive hits that will have people doubting whether to move here.

[gatorcane]

Just heard a story on new 25 (West Palm Beach). They explicitly said that many people think they lived through a hurricane in Palm Beach County with Frances and Jean. However, they don't realize that Palm Beach DID NOT take a direct hit....lots of blue roofs from Palm Beach County north up the treasure coast and many homes still not ready for another assault. I hope the hurricanes stay away...it won't be pretty even if any hit this year.

[Scorpion]

I agree. We got the most hammered out of all Palm Beach County and the max gust was like 100 mph here.

[gatorcane]

There's another article that emphasize how complacent people are in FL. They just don't know what's going to hit them. Check out the other article:

Surprizing reports from florida??????????????????????????

[gatorcane]

I think we have an issue here...look how many people have viewed/commented on this post.

[boca]

Problem is that people are moving down here from the Midwest, Far West, and Northeast (non coastal communities) to a paradise never expierenced a hurricane and that won't change.