ridge

[jann14]

Is the Bermuda High the ridge that determines the path of an Atlantic Hurricane ie: West or curved to the North and is that what affected the paths of the Hurricanes that hit Florida last year??? If so, what time of year will that set in or not set in, or does it shift through the season causing paths of storms that are not able to be determined until possibly last minute????

[Anonymous]

We are not sure yet, but from top notch guests on recent shows, such as Chris Landsea, and Dave Tolleris...it seems as though the pattern may flip like last year come August, where the ridge builds in. If I had to say, chances are for the ridge to build back in.

[The Big Dog]

On the other hand, there's this ray of hope:

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/search/con ... _0428.html

The forecaster isn't making a prediction, but he sees these late season fronts and April rains as signs that the high may be weaker. He does imply that it's too early to tell, however.

[Anonymous]

Yes, DT mentioned that last night, on how, like last year, the pattern flipped by August. Time will tell....

[krysof]

a weaker bermuda high will put the east coast at a higher risk, instead of hurricane slamming into Florida, they may swerve north putting the Carolinas at great risk. I think's it's best for Florida's sake.

[cyclonaut]

The scenarios are enless with highs & hurricanes.

You can have a situation like krysof explained where Florida gets spared & The Carolinas get hit.

You can have a Andrew scenario where a hurricane just moves rapidly due west.

Maybe a hurricane just misses the islands to the north affects the whole Bahama chains begins to recurve but still hits South Fla & affects much of the EC.(Donna type)

A powerful hurricane might get trapped by this ever popular Bermuda High & head toward Florida but only scare the cr&# out everyone in Florida as it passes through the Straits & threatens the Gulf states.

Take the same scenario above but this time the storm nails The Keys.

Same scenario yet again only this time the storm moves W/SW,dives into the BOC & slams old Mexico.

& many more...Who knows what exactly will happen this season.Thats why I love this game!!

[StormChasr]

There are many variables in hurricane landfalls. The much hyped Bermuda high is only one aspect, and has been grossly overstated and oversimplified. The identical conditions could exist from last season, and the outcome could be completely different. Otherwise, being a forecaster would be an easy task, and it definitely ISN'T.

[recmod]

There are many variables in hurricane landfalls. The much hyped Bermuda high is only one aspect, and has been grossly overstated and oversimplified.

This statement is very true. Remember, it was NOT the Bermuda High that brought Charley to Florida, but the strong out-of-season trough that swung down over the Northern Gulf. Had that trough not been situated where it was at the precise time Charley was entering the Gulf, Florida's hurricane would have been a Northern or Western Gulf problem instead.


--Lou

[cyclonaut]

There are many variables in hurricane landfalls. The much hyped Bermuda high is only one aspect, and has been grossly overstated and oversimplified. The identical conditions could exist from last season, and the outcome could be completely different. Otherwise, being a forecaster would be an easy task, and it definitely ISN'T.

Well said!

[Anonymous]

But...the high:

Steered Frances Westward long enough to make a US Landfall a certainty

Steered Ivan Further West than expected into the Gulf

Steered Jeanne West into Florida

[cyclonaut]

Eventually though a trough of some kind came along & had an influence on the high & those storms so again it comes down to timing & how all these features interact @ a given time.

[Anonymous]

Yesm but the ridge makes the difference of a Fabian vs a Frances, or an Isabel vs an Andrew.

[krysof]

i think the bermuda high has the primary control until the hurricane interacts with a trough, and that's when the trough takes control