El Nino...when?

[Huckster]

I've come across several lists which give a given year as either an El Nino or La Nina year and so on. What I am interested to know is, has anyone got any information that would give the time of year the past El Ninos occured? For example, 1997, as far as I can tell, did not start out with an El Nino, but we all think of it as an El Nino year, and 1998 started with the previous El Nino, but by the time the heart of the hurricane season had come, the El Nino was gone. I guess what I'm saying is, it's not enough to say that such and such year was an El Nino year. You've got to look at the placement of the event to see how it effects the hurricane season.

[weatherwindow]

the sst anomalies began to be noticed in april of 1997 and peaked in october of that year. the el nino is dated by its year of origin. the tipping point typically occurs in the may-june period during which the ssts reach or exceed the lower limits of the warm episode range. in most el nino episodes, the warming begins to recede in the spring of the following year and dissipates by late summer. however, there are many episodes of lingering multi-year warming, 1991-1994 is one such period. in addition, the el nino episode may not be followed by a distinct la nina but rather by a neutral period. such a period is currently forecast by NCEP for the remainder of this year.

[weatherwindow]

a further comment....the bottom line to the dating is that the length of the warm or cold episode is in the range of 15-18 months. so the "97" el nino was actually the 1997-1998 event and the following la nina, which began in the summer of 98 was actually the 1998-1999 event. in many cases, the previous episode is no longer a factor in the following year's hurricane season......rich

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 043#853043

At link above is the thread that I made about the strong El Nino of 1997-98 with the sequence.

[weatherwindow]

luis, you certainly provide spectacular graphics.....thanks for the link.....rich

[EDR1222]

I agree, great graphics and great information from you as usual, Luis


Ed

[cycloneye]

Your Welcome to both.

[James]

Just as a matter of interest, check out the warming going on in the E. Pacific:



While of course this warming is not everything when talking of an El Nino, I just thought that it was pretty impressive.

[Javlin]

The thing to though James is it still there in 30-45 days.It has been noted that possibily in the wake of the Kelvin wave cooling is occurring.Whether this is an absolute at this time I think still remains to be seen.

[cyclonaut]

AT least you are getting some good honest replies to your El Nino ?.

My El Nino thread plummeted faster than Charley's barometric pressure of the SW coast of Fla.

[Wnghs2007]

Just as a matter of interest, check out the warming going on in the E. Pacific:


While of course this warming is not everything when talking of an El Nino, I just thought that it was pretty impressive.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 150#866150

[Huckster]

Thanks to all who've replied or expressed interest