First wave is analyzed

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cycloneye
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First wave is analyzed

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:34 pm

AT LOW LEVELS...AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES IS INITIALIZED ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ WITH AXIS
ALONG 34W/35W AND SOUTH OF 12N. THE GFS MODEL INITIALIZES
THIS WAVE TWO DEGREES FARTHER WEST THAN ITS ACTUAL
POSITION...SO WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. AT 24 HRS
WE EXPECT THE WAVE ALONG 36W/37W...TO MOVE ALONG 38W/39W BY
36 HRS..40W/41W BY 48 HRS AND 43W BY 60 HRS. AS IT NEARS THE
GUIANAS BY 72/84 HRS THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN. MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE ITCZ.

Image

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

Nothing abmormal with this weak wave at very low latitud as by this time of the year they start to form and move with the easterlies in a weak stage.I only am posting this because it is the first wave that is analized but nothing more as quickscat and Sat Pic show.

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Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:25 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby depotoo » Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:37 pm

kind of exciting though - shows the season is getting near!
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hcane
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Wave forecast graphic

#3 Postby hcane » Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:43 pm

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Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Tue Apr 26, 2005 3:45 pm

Might become something in the Eastern Pacific.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:25 pm

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:08 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Might become something in the Eastern Pacific.


It's a little early for tropical cyclone formation in the Eastern Pacific, since cyclones in this basin had been follow, there has never been a formation before May 12.

The only cyclone was tropical storm Hali in the Central Pacific in 1992.

But afterall, it will be cool. There is always a first time!!!
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